汇丰研究发布研报指出，内地水泥价格持续受到供应方面控制以及季节性需求改善而上升，而新的产能替代规例为多余的生产订下更严厉的限制，将有助行业加速整合。该行预计水泥需求将继续下降，然而，供应方面出现了积极而且可持续的变化，主要由于行业参与者愿意合作以维持合理的毛利，这将为2024年第四季和2025年带来盈利向上，以及预计将会有更多政府主导的供应控制政策出炉。Cement stocks experienced a broad decline in the afternoon, as of the time of writing, cnbm (03323) fell by 4.76% to 3.2 HKD; westchinacement (02233) fell by 3.01% to 1.29 HKD; conch cement (00914) fell by 2.8% to 20.85 HKD; cr bldg mat tec (01313) fell by 2.55% to 1.91 HKD.
According to Zhito Finance APP, cement stocks experienced a broad decline in the afternoon, as of the time of writing, cnbm (03323) fell by 4.76% to 3.2 HKD; westchinacement (02233) fell by 3.01% to 1.29 HKD; conch cement (00914) fell by 2.8% to 20.85 HKD; cr bldg mat tec (01313) fell by 2.55% to 1.91 HKD.
On the news front, in the first three quarters of this year, the cement output hit a new low due to the sluggish real estate investment and the continued slowdown of infrastructure investment growth. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to September 2024, the new construction area of houses nationwide decreased by 22.2% year-on-year, with the new construction area of residences declining by 22.4%; nationwide infrastructure investment (excluding electrical utilities) increased by 4.1% year-on-year, down 2.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year; cumulative cement output of large-scale enterprises nationwide was 1.327 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.71% (on a comparable basis), marking the lowest value for the same period since 2010.
HSBC Research published a research report indicating that mainland cement prices continue to rise due to supply controls and seasonal demand improvements, while new capacity replacement regulations impose stricter limits on excess production, which will help accelerate the integration of the industry. The bank expects cement demand to continue to decline; however, there are positive and sustainable changes on the supply side, mainly due to the willingness of industry participants to cooperate to maintain reasonable gross margins, which will bring upward profitability for the fourth quarter of 2024 and 2025, and it is anticipated that more government-led supply control policies will be introduced.
