由于交易商将注意力集中在美洲不断增长的产量上，自10月初以来，原油价格已下跌11%。目前，布伦特原油期货的交易价格接近每桶72美元。In terms of demand, the IEA expects that this year, global oil consumption will increase by 0.92 million barrels per day, which is less than half of the growth rate in 2023. By 2025, demand will grow by 0.99 million barrels per day. However, the IEA predicts that supply growth will continue, with production from countries such as the usa, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana increasing by 1.5 million barrels per day this year and next.
On Thursday, November 14, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a monthly report stating that if OPEC+ continues its plans to restore production, the global crude oil product supply surplus will further exacerbate.
Due to continued weak demand, the global crude oil product market will face a supply surplus of more than 1 million barrels per day in 2025, while the impact of turmoil in the Middle East and other regions on oil prices will be somewhat alleviated.
As traders focus on the growing production in the americas, crude oil prices have fallen 11% since the beginning of October. Currently, the trading price of Brent crude oil futures is close to $72 per barrel.
In terms of demand, the IEA expects global crude oil product consumption to increase by 0.92 million barrels per day this year, less than half of the growth rate in 2023, reaching an average of 0.1028 billion barrels per day. By 2025, demand will grow by 0.99 million barrels per day. The IEA stated:
"For two years, the daily increase in crude oil product has been below 1 million barrels per day, reflecting poor global economic conditions, and the pent-up demand that was held back after the pandemic has now been fully released. In addition, the rapid deployment of clean energy technologies is increasingly replacing the application of oil in transportation and power generation."
Earlier this year, the IEA predicted that as the world transitions from fossil fuels to electric vehicles and wind power, global crude oil product demand will cease to grow within this decade.
Despite the cooling of demand growth, the IEA expects supply growth to continue:
"Supplies from producing countries such as the USA, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana will increase by 1.5 million barrels per day this year and next."
In other words, even if the OPEC+ carter of 23 countries abandons the plan to restore production, next year's global oil supply will exceed demand by 1 million barrels per day.
Previously, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies had been seeking to restart production that had been halted since 2022, but due to the market still being very fragile, they have been forced to postpone this action twice. Currently, OPEC plans to "slightly increase production by 0.18 million barrels per month starting in January next year," and a meeting will be held on December 1st of this year to review this decision.
Now, OPEC has realized that oil demand is slowing down, although this understanding has come a bit late. Over the past four months, OPEC has consecutively lowered its demand forecast for this year four times, with a reduction of 18%. Nevertheless, the institution's predicted growth of 1.8 million barrels per day is still about twice that of the IEA's forecast and exceeds most other market observers.
