The latest analyst coverage could presage a bad day for Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics Co., Ltd. (SZSE:002930), with the analysts making across-the-board cuts to their statutory estimates that might leave shareholders a little shell-shocked. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

After this downgrade, Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics' twin analysts are now forecasting revenues of CN¥1.8b in 2025. This would be a huge 21% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are presumed to surge 41% to CN¥0.70. Prior to this update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥2.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.97 in 2025. Indeed, we can see that the analysts are a lot more bearish about Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics' prospects, administering a substantial drop in revenue estimates and slashing their EPS estimates to boot.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics' revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 17% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 21% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 5.6% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately, analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, although our data indicates revenues are expected to perform better than the wider market. We wouldn't be surprised to find shareholders feeling a bit shell-shocked, after these downgrades. It looks like analysts have become a lot more bearish on Guangdong Great River Smarter Logistics, and their negativity could be grounds for caution.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

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