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We Think Sany Heavy IndustryLtd (SHSE:600031) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

We Think Sany Heavy IndustryLtd (SHSE:600031) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

我們認爲三一重工能夠控制其債務
Simply Wall St ·  2024/11/15 10:27

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600031) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

由伯克希爾哈撒韋的查理·芒格支持的外部基金經理李錄毫不掩飾地表示:"最大的投資風險不是價格的波動,而是你是否會遭受資本的永久損失。" 所以看來明智的投資者知道,債務 - 通常參與破產 - 是評估公司風險程度時非常重要的因素。我們可以看到,三一重工股份有限公司(SHSE:600031)的業務確實使用了債務。但更重要的問題是:這些債務會帶來多大風險呢?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

當企業無法輕易地通過自由現金流或以有吸引力的價格籌資時,債務和其他負債就會對企業構成風險。資本主義的一部分就是「創造性破壞」過程,失敗的企業無情地被銀行家清算掉。然而,更頻繁(但仍然代價高昂)的情況是,公司必須以極低的價格發行股票,永久性地稀釋股東以強化其資產負債表。當然,債務的優勢是它通常代表了廉價資本,特別是當它以高回報率再投資的能力取代稀釋時。考慮企業的債務水平時,第一步是考慮現金和債務的總和。

What Is Sany Heavy IndustryLtd's Debt?

三一重工股份有限公司的債務是什麼?

As you can see below, Sany Heavy IndustryLtd had CN¥27.1b of debt at September 2024, down from CN¥32.2b a year prior. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥27.6b in cash, so it actually has CN¥446.6m net cash.

正如您下面所看到的,三一重工股份有限公司於2024年9月的債務爲271億人民幣,較去年同期的322億人民幣減少。不過,其資產負債表顯示其持有現金276億人民幣,因此實際上淨現金爲44660萬人民幣。

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SHSE:600031 Debt to Equity History November 15th 2024
SHSE:600031債務與股本歷史數據(2024年11月15日)

How Healthy Is Sany Heavy IndustryLtd's Balance Sheet?

三一重工的資產負債表有多健康?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Sany Heavy IndustryLtd had liabilities of CN¥58.2b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥19.5b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had CN¥27.6b in cash and CN¥30.2b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥20.0b.

根據最近報告的資產負債表,三一重工的短期債務爲582億元人民幣,長期債務爲195億元人民幣。 抵消這些,它有276億元人民幣的現金和302億元人民幣的應收賬款,這些應收款項將在12個月內到期。 因此,其負債比現金和(短期)應收賬款之和多200億元人民幣。

Given Sany Heavy IndustryLtd has a humongous market capitalization of CN¥155.5b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Sany Heavy IndustryLtd boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

考慮到三一重工有着1555億元人民幣龐大的市值,很難相信這些負債會構成太大威脅。 話雖如此,很明顯我們應該繼續監視其資產負債表,以免情況變壞。 儘管它的負債可觀,但三一重工擁有淨現金,因此可以說其沒有沉重的債務負擔!

But the other side of the story is that Sany Heavy IndustryLtd saw its EBIT decline by 2.4% over the last year. That sort of decline, if sustained, will obviously make debt harder to handle. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Sany Heavy IndustryLtd's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

但故事的另一面是,三一重工去年的息稅前利潤率下降了2.4%。 如果這種下降持續下去,顯然會使債務更難處理。 毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表上了解到債務的大部分信息。 但更重要的是,未來的盈利,而不是其他任何事情,將決定三一重工未來保持健康資產負債表的能力。 因此,如果您想知道專業人士的看法,您可能會發現這份關於分析師盈利預測的免費報告很有趣。

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. While Sany Heavy IndustryLtd has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the most recent three years, Sany Heavy IndustryLtd recorded free cash flow worth 64% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

但我們的最終考慮也很重要,因爲一家公司無法用紙面利潤支付債務;它需要現金。 雖然三一重工在資產負債表上有淨現金,但仍然值得看看其將息稅前利潤轉化爲自由現金流的能力,以幫助我們了解其建立(或侵蝕)現金餘額的速度。 在最近的三年中,三一重工實現的自由現金流價值爲其息稅前利潤的64%,這在正常範圍內,因爲自由現金流不包括利息和稅收。 這筆自由現金流使公司有能力在適當時償還債務。

Summing Up

總之

Although Sany Heavy IndustryLtd's balance sheet isn't particularly strong, due to the total liabilities, it is clearly positive to see that it has net cash of CN¥446.6m. So we don't have any problem with Sany Heavy IndustryLtd's use of debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with Sany Heavy IndustryLtd , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

儘管三一重工有限公司的資產負債表並不特別強大,受到總負債的影響,但看到其淨現金達到人民幣44660萬仍然是明顯的積極信號。因此,我們對三一重工有限公司的債務使用並不擔心。在分析債務水平時,資產負債表是顯而易見的起點。但最終,每家公司都可能存在超出資產負債表之外的風險。我們已經發現了一處預警信號與三一重工有限公司相關,理解這些信號應該成爲您投資過程的一部分。

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

當一切塵埃落定時,有時更容易專注於那些甚至不需要債務的公司。讀者可以立即免費查看零淨債務的成長股列表。

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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Simply Wall St的這篇文章是一般性質的。我們僅基於歷史數據和分析師預測提供評論,使用公正的方法,我們的文章並非意在提供財務建議。這並不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,並且不考慮您的目標或財務狀況。我們旨在爲您帶來基於基礎數據驅動的長期聚焦分析。請注意,我們的分析可能未考慮最新的價格敏感公司公告或定性材料。Simply Wall St對提及的任何股票都沒有持倉。

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