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We Think Sany Heavy IndustryLtd (SHSE:600031) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

三一重工( SHSE:600031 )は負債の上で立ち続けることができると思います。

Simply Wall St ·  2024/11/15 10:27

The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Sany Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600031) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

What Is Sany Heavy IndustryLtd's Debt?

As you can see below, Sany Heavy IndustryLtd had CN¥27.1b of debt at September 2024, down from CN¥32.2b a year prior. However, its balance sheet shows it holds CN¥27.6b in cash, so it actually has CN¥446.6m net cash.

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SHSE:600031 Debt to Equity History November 15th 2024

How Healthy Is Sany Heavy IndustryLtd's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Sany Heavy IndustryLtd had liabilities of CN¥58.2b due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥19.5b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had CN¥27.6b in cash and CN¥30.2b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by CN¥20.0b.

Given Sany Heavy IndustryLtd has a humongous market capitalization of CN¥155.5b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Sany Heavy IndustryLtd boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!

But the other side of the story is that Sany Heavy IndustryLtd saw its EBIT decline by 2.4% over the last year. That sort of decline, if sustained, will obviously make debt harder to handle. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Sany Heavy IndustryLtd's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. While Sany Heavy IndustryLtd has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. Over the most recent three years, Sany Heavy IndustryLtd recorded free cash flow worth 64% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Summing Up

Although Sany Heavy IndustryLtd's balance sheet isn't particularly strong, due to the total liabilities, it is clearly positive to see that it has net cash of CN¥446.6m. So we don't have any problem with Sany Heavy IndustryLtd's use of debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with Sany Heavy IndustryLtd , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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