Wisdom Financial APP learned that Guoyuan Securities released research reports stating that Tesla expects the Robotaxi to be in production in 2026, mass-produced in 2027. If it passes the approval in China and Europe in Q1 2025, the Model 3/Y will be the first to experience the self-driving function, potentially becoming a self-driving taxi. Other electric vehicle manufacturers are following suit, which is expected to drive demand for electronic components. In-car cameras, storage chips, wireless charging modules, SoC, smart cabins, and PCBs are expected to benefit.

Guoyuan Securities' main points are as follows:

In-car camera (CIS)

The improvement in autonomous driving levels drives the demand for in-car cameras, further driving the demand for CIS. The main incremental demand for cameras comes from the front view, showing a trend towards multi-targeting and high pixelation. Binocular and trinocular cameras gradually become mainstream due to higher accuracy. An 8M CIS has better data capture capabilities compared to 1-2M, driving the demand for high-pixel front view CIS.

Storage chips

DRAM is gradually upgrading from LPDDR4 at L1/L2 to GDDR6 at L4/L5, with L5 bandwidth about 9 times that of L1; NAND is upgrading from eMMC at L1/L2 to PCIe at L4/L5, with L5 capacity about 20 times that of L1. NorFlash has a mounting quantity ranging from a dozen to dozens, and the mounting demand for smart car EEPROM reaches 30-40. The value share of automotive storage chips in automotive semiconductors is expected to increase from 8% in 2023 to 10-11% by 2028.

Wireless charging module

Achieving full unmanned operation in the entire self-driving process still needs to solve the unmanned charging issue. Tesla has submitted four magnetic resonance charging technologies, which may become the answer. Currently, the power of wireless charging devices is equivalent to AC charging stations. With costs gradually decreasing, there will be a substitution effect in the medium to long term. A research team has developed a 100kW wireless charging device. With technology maturity and cost reduction, it is expected to replace some DC charging stations in the long term.

System on a Chip (SoC)

The shift of automobiles towards centralized domain controller architecture is driving the demand for SoCs. The global and China ADAS SoC market size is expected to achieve a CAGR of 24% and 23% from 2024 to 2028. In the development of advanced driving functions, SoCs with greater computational power (≥100TOPS) are needed to support new algorithms and more advanced vehicle EE architecture (central computing + regional control).

Smart cockpit

Smart cockpits provide a comprehensive experience of safety, intelligence, efficiency, and pleasure for passengers and drivers through human-machine interaction, connected services, and expanded scenarios. The implementation of functions requires the participation of components such as display devices and communication modules. With the increasing functions and penetration rate of smart cockpits, the demand for related components is driven. The global smart cockpit market size is expected to achieve a CAGR of 10% and 12% from 2022 to 2025, and China's smart cockpit penetration rate led the world by 11% in 2022, with the gap continuously expanding in the coming years.

Printed Circuit Board (PCB)

The continuous deepening of automotive electrification is expected to make automotive electronics account for 50% of the overall automotive cost by 2030, driving the continuous increase in PCB usage. In terms of segmented products, the high data transmission speed requirements of smart cockpits and ADAS will further increase the usage of multilayer boards and HDI. Particularly, the usage of HDI is expected to achieve a CAGR of 16.5% from 2022 to 2028, higher than the overall PCB growth level of 7.1%. Following is the flex PCB with a CAGR of 9.1%, and multilayer boards at 7.1%.

Recommend paying attention to,

CIS: will semiconductor (603501.SH), asia vets-W (688213.SH), chipone (688728.SH)

Automotive storage: gigadevice semiconductor inc. (603986.SH), ingenic semiconductor (300223.SZ), eastech semiconductor (688110.SH)

Wireless charging module: luxshare precision industry (002475.SZ)

Magnetic materials: tdg holding (600330.SH), beijing zhong ke san huan high-tech (000970.SZ), ningbo yunsheng (600366.SH)

Analog chips: sg micro corp (300661.SZ), naxin micro (688052.SH), 3peak incorporated (688536.SH)

Smart cabin: shenzhen zhaowei machinery & electronics (003021.SZ), huizhou desay sv automotive (002920.SZ)

PCB: olympic circuit technology (603920.SH), shenzhen kinwong electronic (603228.SH), wus printed circuit (002463.SZ)

Risk warning

Upside Risks: The progress of self-driving cars exceeds expectations; governments of various countries approve self-driving vehicles ahead of schedule; acceleration of the launch of wireless charging function.

Downside Risks: Macroeconomic downturn; slower progress in the autonomous driving of various new energy vehicle manufacturers than expected; wireless charging function launch progress is slower than expected; other systemic risks.