During the Asian session on Friday (November 15), spot gold fluctuated and weakened, continuing the decline in previous trading days. Currently, it is trading around 2559.03 US dollars/ounce. Although the price of gold was supported by dips near support levels such as the 100-day EMA on Thursday, the price of gold once rebounded to around 2577.33 US dollars/ounce, the Federal Reserve Chairman's hawkish remarks suppressed expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut in December, providing support for the US dollar and putting pressure on the price of gold once again. If the gold price is to resume its upward trend, it will need to be boosted by more fundamental-positive news.

The US dollar continued to rise this week, driven by rising US bond yields and Trump's victory in the election. A stronger dollar has made gold and silver more expensive for holders of other currencies.

The incoming Trump administration is expected to boost inflation by increasing trade tariffs and tightening immigration policies, which may slow the Fed's easing cycle in the long run. Expectations of an increase in deficit spending have also boosted US bond yields, providing more support for the US dollar.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said on Thursday that continued economic growth, a steady job market, and the target of an inflation rate still above 2% mean that the Federal Reserve does not need to cut interest rates hastily; it can think twice.

Data released by the US shows that US producer prices rebounded in October, which once again shows that progress in reducing inflation is stagnating. Meanwhile, the number of jobless claims dropped at the beginning of last week, indicating that the labor market is still stable. The sudden slowdown in employment growth in October was just an anomaly.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the price of the 25 basis point interest rate cut for the December meeting of the Federal Reserve was also reduced to 58% from 82.5% a day ago.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) monetary strategist Carol Kong said, “The market accepted [Powell's] remarks, and as a result, reduced expectations for the pace of FOMC interest rate cuts. We still think we might cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December. I think this is a reasonable expectation, but I think Powell's remarks only emphasized the resilience of the US economy. The market will focus on the prospects of President Trump's policy agenda, so in the short term, we may see a further rise in the dollar.”

The market will also pay attention to the US retail sales data to be released at 21:30; in addition, the monthly rate of US industrial output for October will be released at 22:00, so investors also need to pay attention.

At the daily level, the MACD continued to fall below the zero axis, and the Bollinger line opened. Although the 100-day EMA and 50% retracement level barely provided support, there was no clear sign of bottoming out. Before closing at the 5-day EMA of 2582.12, the price of gold may fall again to support the 100-day EMA of 2545.26, the 50% retracement level of 2538.57, and the August 20 high of 2531.58. If it falls below the 2530 first-line support, the price of gold may fall further to the 2,500 mark.

If the price of gold can close above the 5-day EMA of 2582.12, it will weaken the bearish signal in the future.

(Daily chart of spot gold, source: Easy Huitong)

At 14:34 Beijing time, spot gold was currently reported at 2559.76 US dollars/ounce.