Jinwu Financial News | Cathay Pacific Junan Research Report said that due to weak global consumer demand, Samsonite (01910) earned 0.88 billion US dollars in Q3, -8.3% YoY /-6.8% at a fixed exchange rate. Due to the decline in the Asian region and TUMI's share of revenue, where profit margins are high, gross margin was -0.3 pct to 59.3%. Combined sales expenses were more rigid. Net profit to mother was 0.066 billion US dollars, or -39.1% over the same period last year. The adjusted profit margin was 17.6%, -2.7 pct year over year, lower than the previous forecast of 19%.
The bank said that the Samsonite brand is resilient, and TUMI is being pressured by the downturn in consumption. 1) By brand: Q3 Samsonite/TUMI/US Travel revenue of 0.48/0.19/0.14 billion US dollars, -3.9%/-17.0% year-on-year, excluding -2.2%/-8.9%/-15.1%. In the context of a high base in 2023, Samsonite maintained relative resilience; TUMI fluctuated greatly in the US and Asia, and maintained a steady growth trend in Europe; US travel was under pressure in the short term due to increased market competition and increased promotions, but maintained a double-digit growth target in the medium term. 2) Channel division: Q3 wholesale/DTC revenue was 0.53/0.35 billion US dollars, -11.5%/-3.1% year over year, excluding -10.4%/-0.8% of exchange rate; in the context of weak consumption, wholesalers were more cautious in picking up goods. The company continued to make efforts in the DTC channel, with a net expansion of 21 to 1104 self-operated stores, and DTC achieved positive growth in many regions. 3) By region: Q3 Asia/North America/Europe/Latin America revenue of 3.3/0.3/0.21/0.05 billion dollars, -12%/-8%/-2%/-8% year-on-year, excluding exchange -12%/-8%/-2%/+14%.
The bank continued that as the high base effect declined, the sales growth rate has been corrected since October. Among them, Double Eleven sales in China also increased by nearly double digits. Revenue guidance for 2024 is flat year over year (fixed exchange rate). Looking ahead to 2025, the company will continue to focus on brands, channels and regions with higher profit margins, and revenue and profit are expected to grow steadily. Considering that Q3 profit fell short of expectations due to weak terminal consumption, the bank lowered the company's net profit to mother in 2024-2026 to 0.389/0.436/0.49 billion US dollars (0.422/0.457/0.497 billion US dollars before adjustment, respectively). The current stock price corresponding to PE is 9/8/7 times, respectively, maintaining an increase rating.
