The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on American Vanguard Corporation (NYSE:AVD), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its third-quarter results last week. It definitely looks like a negative result overall with revenues falling 15% short of analyst estimates at US$118m. Statutory losses were US$0.92 per share, 868% bigger than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from American Vanguard's dual analysts is for revenues of US$591.3m in 2025. This reflects an okay 6.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. American Vanguard is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.42 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$598.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.40 in 2025. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

The consensus price target fell 17% to US$12.50, suggesting the increase in earnings forecasts was not enough to offset other the analysts concerns.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 5.4% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 5.7% annual growth over the past five years. Juxtapose this against our data, which suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 4.5% per year. It's clear that while American Vanguard's revenue growth is expected to continue on its current trajectory, it's only expected to grow in line with the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around American Vanguard's earnings potential next year. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have analyst estimates for American Vanguard going out as far as 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - American Vanguard has 3 warning signs we think you should be aware of.

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