“自1936年以来，标普500指数14个月RSI首次达到70和周期峰值之间的持续时间中位数为12个月，在此期间的中位数回报率为+19%，”Wald表示，“这个信号是在8月底发出的。”According to Oppenheimer's data, the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that the overall US stock market will not peak until 2025.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that according to Oppenheimer's data, the monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that the overall US stock market will not peak until 2025.
Technical analyst Ari Wald wrote in a report: “Momentum indicators also indicate that the highest risk in the market over the next few months is below average.”
“The median duration between the S&P 500's 14-month RSI reaching 70 for the first time since 1936 and the peak of the cycle was 12 months, with a median return rate of +19% during this period,” Wald said. “This signal was sent at the end of August.”
“Furthermore, 15 of 18 times (83%) were at least 6 months away from the peak of the cycle, and 12 of 18 times (67%) rose at least 10% after the peak.”
In the short term, Wald suggests taking its best technical buy/sell combination trades in each industry:
Energy: Buy Cheniere Energy (LNG.US) and sell Shell (SHEL.US)
Material: Buy CRH cement (CRH.US) and sell Dow Chemical (DOW.US)
Industry: Buy Dover Group (DOV.US) and sell Kangjie International Logistics (EXPD.US)
Non-essential consumer goods: buy Amazon (AMZN.US), sell MGM (MGM.US)
Consumer essentials: Buy Kroger (KR.US), sell Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM.US)
Healthcare: Buy Stryker (SYK.US), sell IDXX.US
Finance: Buy Blackstone (BX.US) and sell Dutch International Group (ING.US)
Real Estate: Buy Welltower (WELL.US), sell Costa (CSGP.US)
Information Technology: Buy Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US) and sell Microchip Technology (MCHP.US)
Communications Services: Buy Meta (META.US) and sell AES Power Generation (AES.US)
