该行表示，预计公司FY2024-2026年营收分别为1043/1083/1153 亿元，经调整归母净利润分别为316/330/361亿元，对应经调整 EPS 为 9.83/10.27/11.25 元，对应经调整PE分别13/12/11X。该行根据不同业务板块的盈利能力和竞争格局（给予相应溢价/折价），进行 SOTP 估值，2025 年Target Price152港元，维持“增持”评级。Jingu financial news | Sealand Securities issued a research report, Netease (09999) announced its 2024Q3 financial report, achieving revenue of 26.21 billion yuan in 2024Q3 (YoY-3.9%, QoQ+2.8%); net income attributable to shareholders was 6.538 billion yuan (YoY-16.6%, QoQ-3.3%), non-GAAP net income attributable to shareholders was 7.499 billion yuan (YoY-13.3%, QoQ-4.1%).
The bank pointed out that in 2024Q3, the revenue from games and value-added services reached 20.9 billion yuan (YoY-4.2%, QoQ+4.0%), and the gross margin decreased by 68.8% QoQ due to changes in product mix. Among them, PC game revenue saw strong growth of 29% year-on-year, while mobile games declined by 10% year-on-year due to the base effect. Looking ahead to 2024Q4, Netease continues to enrich its game product matrix and is expected to bring incremental growth: "Marvel Frontier" and "Sixteen Tunes of Yan Yun" will be launched in December.
The bank continued to point out that Youdao Netease achieved revenue of 1.57 billion yuan in 2024Q3, an increase of 2.2% year-on-year and an increase of 19.0% quarter-on-quarter. Profitability has significantly improved, with operating profit turning losses into gains year-on-year, achieving profitability in Youdao's historically third quarter for the first time, and quarterly operating profit also reaching a historical high. Operating cash outflow narrowed to 85.4 million yuan, a 71.0% year-on-year decrease. Under the 'AI + Education' dual-wheel drive strategy, Youdao's products and services continue to upgrade iteratively. The commercialization of AI has achieved another breakthrough, overall performance has steadily grown, and the health and operational efficiency of the business have continued to significantly improve.
The bank stated that the company is expected to achieve revenue of 104.3/108.3/115.3 billion yuan for FY2024-2026, with adjusted net income attributable to shareholders of 31.6/33/36.1 billion yuan, corresponding to adjusted EPS of 9.83/10.27/11.25 yuan, and corresponding adjusted PE ratios of 13/12/11X. The bank values the company using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation based on the profitability and competitive landscape of different business sectors (applying respective premiums/discounts), with a Target Price of 152 Hong Kong dollars in 2025, and maintains a 'shareholding' rating.
