天风证券指出，当前A股主要水泥公司平均PB仅0.73倍，位于2015年以来5.3%分位数水平，而Q3单季度ROE处于15年以来28%分位数，港股水泥公司平均PB仅0.38倍，位于2015年以来8.8%分位数水平，Q3单季度ROE处于15年以来15%分位数水平，从过去来看，水泥公司ROE和PB相关性较强，PB是未来ROE变动的领先指标，随着四季度水泥价格触底回升，ROE有望出现向上拐点，带动PB向上恢复。Cement stocks are among the leading gainers. As of the time of this report, cnbm (03323) is up 7.96%, trading at 3.39 HKD; bbmg corporation (02009) is up 6.33%, trading at 0.84 HKD; conch cement (00914) is up 5.35%, trading at 21.65 HKD; huaxin cement (06655) is up 3.31%, trading at 7.8 HKD; westchinacement (02233) is up 3.13%, trading at 1.32 HKD.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, cement stocks are among the leading gainers. As of the time of this report, cnbm (03323) is up 7.96%, trading at 3.39 HKD; bbmg corporation (02009) is up 6.33%, trading at 0.84 HKD; conch cement (00914) is up 5.35%, trading at 21.65 HKD; huaxin cement (06655) is up 3.31%, trading at 7.8 HKD; westchinacement (02233) is up 3.13%, trading at 1.32 HKD.
On the news front, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the cement production in October was 0.175 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%; from January to October, cement production was 1.501 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3%, a narrowing of 0.4 percentage points compared to January to September. According to Digital Cement Network, the average cement price in October was 412 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 5.9% and a year-on-year increase of 11.0%.
Tianfeng points out that the current average PB of major cement companies in the A-shares market is only 0.73 times, located at the 5.3% percentile level since 2015, while the Q3 quarterly roe is at the 28% percentile level since 2015. The average PB of Hong Kong-listed cement companies is only 0.38 times, positioned at the 8.8% percentile level since 2015, and the Q3 quarterly roe is at the 15% percentile level since 2015. Historically, there is a strong correlation between roe and PB in cement companies, and PB is a leading indicator of future roe changes. As cement prices reach the bottom and rebound in the fourth quarter, there is a hopeful upward turning point for roe, which will drive PB to recover.
