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Aussie Dollar Looking Attractive

Business Today ·  2024/11/18 11:17
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As we digest the post US election market reality, there are three reasons to be bullish Australia and therefore bullish on the Australian dollar which is struggling in the mid 60 cent range now for some time.

The Aussie dollar is attractive for domestic exports and will likely be an ongoing economic growth driver for Australian exports and assets.

Australia is one of a few countries that has a free trade agreement with the US. It is the fourth-largest free trade partner with the US when ranked by GDP behind Canada, Mexico and South Korea.

Australia is unlikely to be directly caught up in any traffic dispute with the US and could potentially benefit indirectly depending on how things play out.

Australia is also a commodities superpower and a combination of a weak currency, trade tensions and a potential change in Australian government in 2025 could be bullish for the commodities market which has recently been struggling.

Iron ore, natural gas, copper and nickle are all key exports which would be in high demand if the US does go through a higher than expected economic growth period.

Bottom line: The Aussie dollar is an attractive strategic currency at current levels given Australia's strong fiscal position, strong jobs, moderating inflation and exposure to high growth commodity market consumption.

The Aussie batler's resilience in challenging times underscores its long-term value as a key player in global markets.

As the dust settles in the US, we expect to see the AUDUSD move into the 0.65-0.70 band range in early 2025 before consolidating and potentially moving higher.

Market commentary from Peter Esho, economist and founder at Esho Capital

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