Bank of America Securities has lowered its adjusted net income forecast for alibaba for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 9% to 15%.
According to Zhitong Finance APP, Bank of America Securities released a research report stating that it expects alibaba-SW (09988) earnings to hit bottom in the fiscal year 2026, with the target price reduced from $124 to $112, and the target price for Hong Kong stocks lowered from HK$121 to HK$109, while maintaining a "buy" rating. Additionally, it has revised the adjusted net income forecast for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 down by 9% to 15%.
The company's performance in the second quarter of the fiscal year 2025 largely met market expectations. Total revenue was 236.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5%, consistent with the bank's forecast but 1% lower than market consensus. Alibabas management expects the group's gross merchandise value (GMV) and customer management revenue (CMR) to steadily accelerate, especially in the December quarter. Recent government stimulus policies, particularly in the home appliance sector, have pushed platform sales to achieve double-digit year-on-year growth in October. Additionally, the 0.6% service fee charged by Taobao since September has had a diminishing impact on the group's GMV, which is expected to ease with increasing service fees.
Management also mentioned that the group's ongoing investments in consumer trade and experience may take several quarters to complete. Moreover, the group maintains an optimistic view on the growth potential of AE Choice and Trendyol and is committed to increasing the budget to boost consumer share in europe and the Gulf region.