Bank of America Securities released a research report saying that it is expected that Alibaba-SW (09988) profit will bottom out in the 2026 fiscal year. The target price will be lowered from US$124 to US$112, while the target price for Hong Kong stocks will be lowered from HK$121 to HK$109, maintaining a “buy” rating. The company's adjusted net profit forecast for the 2025-2027 fiscal year was also lowered by 9% to 15%.
The company's results for the second quarter of fiscal year 2025 were generally in line with market expectations. Total revenue was 236.5 billion yuan, up 5% year over year, in line with the bank's forecast, but 1% lower than the market consensus forecast. Alibaba management expects the Group's product turnover (GMV) and customer management revenue (CMR) to accelerate steadily, particularly during the December quarter. Recent government stimulus policies, particularly in the home appliance sector, prompted platform sales to reach double-digit year-on-year growth levels in October. Furthermore, the impact of the 0.6% service fee charged by Taobao since September has weakened on the Group's GMV, and it is expected that the service fee situation will ease somewhat as the service fee increases.
Management also indicated that the Group's continued investment in consumer transactions and experiences may take several quarters to complete. As well as the Group's vs AE
Choice and Trendyol are optimistic about their growth potential and are committed to increasing their budget to increase their share of consumers in Europe and the Persian Gulf region.