Bank of America Securities released a research report stating that it reaffirmed the Ctrip Group-S (09961) “buy” rating and raised Ctrip's non-GAAP net profit forecast by 20% and 30% respectively for the 2024 and 2025 fiscal years, and the target price was raised from HK$440 to HK$526. The bank expects Ctrip's profit compound annual growth rate of 12% for the 2024-2026 fiscal year.
The bank estimates that Ctrip Group's total revenue for the third quarter of this year will be 15.6 billion yuan (same below), up 14% and 22% year-on-year respectively, mainly due to strong domestic demand during summer vacation and Golden Week, strong outbound demand, and in line with market expectations.
Bank of America Securities expects Ctrip's third quarter accommodation and transportation revenue to increase by 23% and 3%, respectively; non-GAAP operating costs are expected to be 5.1 billion yuan; and non-GAAP net profit is expected to be 4.8 billion yuan. As for the fourth quarter, the bank expects Ctrip's revenue to accelerate by 17% year over year; however, the non-GAAP net profit margin will remain the same as last year's 26%.
