该行表示，考虑到国内电商业务商业化策略稳步推进以及其他非核心业务持续减亏，该行调整了盈利预测，该行预计公司FY2025-2027财年营收分别为10,059/11,106/12,228亿元，归母净利润分别为1,243/1,323/1,498亿元，Non-GAAP归母净利润分别为1,531/1,667/1,881亿元，对应摊薄EPS为6.2/6.6/7.5元，对应P/E为13x/12x/11x，对应Non-GAAPP/E为10x/9x/8x；根据SOTP估值法，该行给予2025财年阿里巴巴合计目标市值20,556亿元，对应目标价107元人民币/115港元，维持“买入”评级。Jinwu Financial News | According to Guohai Securities Research, Alibaba (09988) announced the FY2025Q2 financial report (corresponding to the natural year 2024Q3), achieving operating income of 236.5 billion yuan (YoY +5%, QoQ -3%); operating profit of 35.2 billion yuan (YoY +5%, QoQ -2%), adjusted EBITDA of 47.3 billion yuan (YoY -4%, QoQ -7%), net profit of 43.5 billion yuan (YoY +63%, QoQ+81) %), net profit attributable to mother $43.9 billion (YoY +58%, QoQ +81%), non-GAAP net profit of 36.5 billion yuan (YoY -9%, QoQ -10%).
According to the bank, in 2024Q3, Taotian Group's revenue achieved a year-on-year increase of 1% to 99 billion yuan, of which customer management revenue increased 2% year-on-year. Online GMV growth benefited from a year-on-year double-digit increase in order volume, but the overall monetization rate remained stable year-on-year; 2024Q3 Cloud Intelligence Group's revenue increased 7% year over year to 29.6 billion yuan, and public cloud revenue achieved double-digit year-on-year growth. AI-related revenue achieved three-digit year-on-year growth for five consecutive quarters; 2024Q3 Cloud Intelligence The Group's revenue achieved a year-on-year increase of 7% to 29.6 billion yuan, public cloud revenue achieved double-digit year-on-year growth, and AI-related revenue achieved three-digit year-on-year growth for five consecutive quarters.
According to the bank, for the quarter ended September 30, 2024, Alibaba repurchased 0.414 billion common shares (equivalent to 52 million American Depositary Shares) for a total of 4.1 billion US dollars; as of September 30, 2024, Alibaba still had a repurchase amount of 22 billion US dollars under the share repurchase plan authorized by the board of directors, which is valid until March 2027.
The bank said that considering the steady progress of the commercialization strategy of the domestic e-commerce business and the continued loss of losses in other non-core businesses, the bank adjusted its profit forecast. The bank expects the company's FY2025-2027 fiscal year revenue to be 1005.9/1110.6/1222.8 billion yuan respectively, net profit to mother is 124.3/132.3/149.8 billion yuan, and non-GAAP net profit to mother is 153.1/166.7/188.1 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding diluted EPS is 6.2 /6.6/7.5 yuan, corresponding P/E is 13x/12x/11x, and the corresponding non-GAAPP/E is 10x/9x/8x; according to the SOTP valuation method, the bank gave Alibaba a total target market value of 2055.6 billion yuan for the 2025 fiscal year, corresponding to a target price of 107 yuan/HK$115, maintaining a “buy” rating.
