该行表示，考虑到京东零售业务持续受益于以旧换新国补政策以及京东物流利润率的改善，该行上调公司营业收入预测分别至11,399/12,075/12,737亿元，上调公司归母净利润分别至377/431/475亿元，对应摊薄EPS分别为12.4/13.8/15.1，Non-GAAP归母净利润分别为450/511/554亿元，对应Non-GAAPP/E为9/8/7X；根据SOTP估值法，该行给予2025年京东集团合计目标市值5,231亿元人民币，对应目标价164元人民币/177港元，维持“买入”评级。Jinwu Financial News | According to Guohai Securities Research, JD (09618) issued an announcement to achieve operating income of 260.4 billion yuan (YoY +5%, QoQ -11%) in 2024Q3; gross profit of 45 billion yuan (YoY +16%, QoQ -2%), operating profit of 12 billion yuan (YoY +29%, QoQ +15%), net profit of 12.8 billion yuan (YoY +56%, QoQ -6%), net profit to mother of 11.7 billion yuan ( YoY +48%, QoQ -7%), non-GAAP net profit of 13.2 billion yuan (YoY +24%, QoQ -9%). As of September 30, 2024, the company has accumulated a total repurchase amount of 3.6 billion US dollars this year. According to the new share repurchase plan effective in September 2024, the company can repurchase shares worth up to 5 billion US dollars (including American depository shares) before the end of August 2027.
According to the bank, JD's retail revenue in 2024Q3 was 225 billion yuan (YoY +6%, QoQ -12%), mainly driven by both an increase in active users and order volume. During the 2024Q3 period, JD's “Chunxiao Plan” was upgraded and launched 15 new initiatives, including the “Three Star Rule Upgrade”, to invest 100 billion in traffic support and over 100 million yuan in advertising subsidies to merchants, driving a year-on-year increase of more than 20% in users of third-party merchants and a year-on-year increase in order volume by more than 30%.
According to the bank, JD Logistics's 2024Q3 revenue was 44.4 billion yuan (YoY +7%, QoQ remained flat), and the operating profit margin increased 4.0 pct to 4.7% year over year. On October 16, 2024, JD Logistics announced that it has reached a cooperation with Taotian Group and will be fully integrated into the Taobao Tmall platform. Its integrated supply chain solutions, JD Express, JD Express and many other businesses will provide services to Taobao Tmall merchants, involving the entire supply chain process such as warehousing, express delivery, and express delivery. The matchmaking system between the two parties was basically completed in mid-October, and it is expected to contribute more external revenue growth in the future.
The bank said that considering that JD's retail business continues to benefit from the trade-in policy and improvements in JD logistics profit margins, the bank raised the company's revenue forecast to 1139.9/1207.5/1273.7 billion yuan, respectively, to 37.7/43.1/47.5 billion yuan, corresponding diluted EPS to 12.4/13.8/15.1, and non-GAAP net profit to mother was 45/51.1/55.4 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to Non- GAAPP/E is 9/8/7X; according to the SOTP valuation method, the bank gave JD Group a total target market value of 523.1 billion yuan in 2025, corresponding to a target price of 164 yuan/HK$177, maintaining a “buy” rating.
