With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 10x Murphy Oil Corporation (NYSE:MUR) may be sending bullish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United States have P/E ratios greater than 19x and even P/E's higher than 35x are not unusual. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
Murphy Oil could be doing better as its earnings have been going backwards lately while most other companies have been seeing positive earnings growth. The P/E is probably low because investors think this poor earnings performance isn't going to get any better. If this is the case, then existing shareholders will probably struggle to get excited about the future direction of the share price.
Does Growth Match The Low P/E?
Murphy Oil's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the market.
If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 35%. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.
Shifting to the future, estimates from the twelve analysts covering the company suggest earnings should grow by 3.9% per year over the next three years. With the market predicted to deliver 11% growth per year, the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.
In light of this, it's understandable that Murphy Oil's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on while the company is potentially eyeing a less prosperous future.
The Final Word
We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
As we suspected, our examination of Murphy Oil's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook is contributing to its low P/E. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
Before you take the next step, you should know about the 1 warning sign for Murphy Oil that we have uncovered.
Of course, you might also be able to find a better stock than Murphy Oil. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
