At today's brokerage morning meeting, China Securities Co.,Ltd. proposed supply-side optimization, suggesting to focus on industries such as steel, photovoltaic, cement, coal, and rare earths; htsc stated that domestic sales of household appliances are improving with stable exports, focusing on two major themes for the year 2025; China International Capital Corporation believes that the historical bottom of real estate stock valuation may have been established.
Caixin News on November 19th, the market surged yesterday but fell back, with the CHINEXT Price Index leading the decline for 3 consecutive days, dropping over 9% in the past three trading days. More than 4100 stocks in the entire market fell, with over 200 stocks dropping over 9%. The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.76 trillion for the whole day, a decrease of 68.8 billion from the previous trading day. In terms of sectors, sectors with gains included graphite electrodes, banks, steel, and real estate, while sectors with declines included Zhipu AI, software development, gaming, and HarmonyOS concept. As of the close yesterday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.21%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 1.91%, and the CHINEXT Price Index fell by 2.35%.
At today's brokerage morning meeting, China Securities Co.,Ltd. proposed supply-side optimization, suggesting to focus on industries such as steel, photovoltaic, cement, coal, and rare earths; htsc stated that domestic sales of household appliances are improving with stable exports, focusing on two major themes for the year 2025; China International Capital Corporation believes that the historical bottom of real estate stock valuation may have been established.
China Securities Co.,Ltd.: Optimizing the supply side, recommends focusing on the steel, photovoltaic, cement, coal, and rare earth industries.
China Securities Co., Ltd. points out that supply-side reform emphasizes the elimination of inefficient capacity, promoting resource optimization, and accelerating industrial upgrading at the macro level to achieve high-quality development of the economic structure. The reform deeply adjusts excess capacity and inefficient production across various industries, steadily improving the supply-demand structure while nurturing new drivers of economic growth through the guidance of new technology applications and green transformation. This provides significant space for valuation recovery and profit enhancement for leading companies in related industries. The comprehensive effects of the reform are reflected in improved industrial efficiency, optimized market competition pattern, and restored investment value in the capital markets. Supply-side optimization recommends paying attention to industries such as steel, photovoltaic, cement, coal, and rare earth.
HTSC: Domestic appliance sales are improving with stable exports, focusing on two main themes for the next 25 years.
HTSC pointed out that from January to October 24, the household appliance index rose by 25%, ranking 3rd in the industry, but has faced rotational adjustments since October. Policies such as 'trade-in old appliances for new ones' stimulated domestic appliance consumer demand. In 2025, the real estate chain may bottom out, consolidating the trend of domestic sales. It is expected that domestic appliance domestic sales will remain optimistic in 2025; overseas pure replenishment demand may weaken, and companies with a relatively high proportion of exports to North America face uncertainties in tariffs. However, companies with earlier overseas research and production integration may still have a relative advantage in the future global competition for household appliances. Therefore, sub-sectors with higher domestic sales revenue proportions are expected to rebound from the bottom; at the same time, bullish on leading companies in white goods, brown goods, and clean appliances with good overseas layouts to continue increasing market share. Recommends 2 main themes: 1) Focus on domestic sales recovery, real estate post-cycle driving, recommend companies with strong brand influence and stable competitive landscape; 2) Bullish on leading companies with full overseas industry chain capabilities that can increase global market share.
China International Capital Corporation: The historical bottom of real estate stocks' valuation may have been established.
China International Capital Corporation believes that currently, Chinese real estate developers are in the early stage of deleveraging. However, it may have already passed the period when the actual market volume and price declined the fastest, while policies are starting to actively promote industry stabilization. For real estate stocks, china international capital corporation generally believes that the historical valuation bottom may have been established, and the focus in the future will mainly be on the pace and space of upward movement, with the main catalysts in incremental policies and housing price trends. Under the benchmark scenario, investors are advised to seize the further upward trend of real estate stocks that may occur in 2025 due to the easing trend of the actual market volume and price.
