标普500指数今年迄今已上涨24%，人工智能蓬勃发展带动英伟达等股票飙升，美国经济也继续展现出韧性。该指数仍位于特朗普赢得美国大选后在11月11日创下的纪录高位附近。David Kostin, chief stock strategist at Goldman Sachs, said the S&P 500 index will rise until the end of next year against the backdrop of continued expansion of the US economy and profit growth.
Kostin raised the target level of the S&P 500 index to 6,500 points by the end of 2025, which is about 10% higher than the current point. He previously set a 12-month target for the index at 6,300 points. This latest forecast is in line with Morgan Stanley's Mike Wilson, who also recently raised the US stock forecast.
“According to our baseline macroeconomic forecasts, the economy and earnings will continue to grow, while bond yields remain near current levels,” Kostin wrote in a Monday report.
The S&P 500 index has risen 24% so far this year. The booming development of artificial intelligence has driven stocks such as Nvidia to soar, and the US economy continues to show resilience. The index is still near the record high that Trump set on November 11 after winning the US election.
In mid-October, the median forecast for the S&P 500 index by the end of 2025 was 6,000 points by strategists. Kostin's forecast for a rise of around 10% is in line with Wall Street's typical expectations of the past few years.
Kostin pointed out that the risk of upside and downside events facing US stocks is very high. He said that a friendlier fiscal policy or a more dovish US Federal Reserve may further boost the stock market, but Trump's tax claims and higher bond yields may put pressure on the stock market.
