It is doubtless a positive to see that the Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy Co., Ltd. (SHSE:688196) share price has gained some 63% in the last three months. But that cannot eclipse the less-than-impressive returns over the last three years. In fact, the share price is down 47% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return.
The recent uptick of 15% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy saw its EPS decline at a compound rate of 58% per year, over the last three years. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 19% compound annual share price fall. This suggests that the market retains some optimism around long term earnings stability, despite past EPS declines. With a P/E ratio of 210.13, it's fair to say the market sees a brighter future for the business.
You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here.
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy the TSR over the last 3 years was -43%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
While the broader market gained around 4.1% in the last year, Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy shareholders lost 23% (even including dividends). However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 3% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy you should be aware of, and 2 of them are concerning.
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.