HighPeak Energy (NASDAQ:HPK) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet
HighPeak Energy (NASDAQ:HPK) Has A Somewhat Strained Balance Sheet
Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, HighPeak Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ:HPK) does carry debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
霍華德·馬克斯說得好,他說的不是擔心股價的波動,而是 「永久損失的可能性是我擔心的風險... 也是我認識的每位實際投資者所擔心的風險。」因此,當你評估公司的風險時,看來聰明的貨幣知道債務(通常涉及破產)是一個非常重要的因素。重要的是,HighPeak Energy, Inc.(納斯達克股票代碼:HPK)確實有債務。但更重要的問題是:這筆債務會帶來多大的風險?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
爲什麼債務會帶來風險?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
一般而言,只有當公司無法通過籌集資金或利用自己的現金流輕鬆償還債務時,債務才會成爲真正的問題。如果情況變得非常糟糕,貸款人可以控制業務。但是,更常見(但仍然令人痛苦)的情況是,它必須以低廉的價格籌集新的股權資本,從而永久稀釋股東。當然,債務可以成爲企業,尤其是資本密集型企業的重要工具。在考慮企業使用多少債務時,要做的第一件事是將現金和債務放在一起看。
What Is HighPeak Energy's Debt?
什麼是HighPeak Energy的債務?
As you can see below, HighPeak Energy had US$1.07b of debt at September 2024, down from US$1.15b a year prior. However, it also had US$135.6m in cash, and so its net debt is US$938.3m.
如下所示,截至2024年9月,HighPeak Energy的債務爲10.7億美元,低於去年同期的11.5億美元。但是,它也有1.356億美元的現金,因此其淨負債爲9.383億美元。
How Strong Is HighPeak Energy's Balance Sheet?
HighPeak Energy的資產負債表有多強?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that HighPeak Energy had liabilities of US$259.6m falling due within a year, and liabilities of US$1.20b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had US$135.6m in cash and US$73.5m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total US$1.25b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
我們可以從最新的資產負債表中看出,HighPeak Energy的負債爲2.596億美元,一年後到期的負債爲12.0億美元。與此相抵消的是,它有1.356億美元的現金和7,350萬美元的應收賬款將在12個月內到期。因此,其負債總額比其現金和短期應收賬款的總和高出12.5億美元。
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of US$1.77b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on HighPeak Energy's use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.
相對於其17.7億美元的市值,這一赤字相當可觀,因此這確實表明股東應密切關注HighPeak Energy的債務使用情況。如果其貸款人要求其支撐資產負債表,股東可能會面臨嚴重的稀釋。
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
爲了擴大公司相對於收益的負債規模,我們計算其淨負債除以利息、稅項、折舊和攤銷前的收益(EBITDA),將其利息和稅前收益(EBIT)除以利息支出(利息保障)。因此,我們將債務與收益的關係考慮在內,包括和不包括折舊和攤銷費用。
HighPeak Energy has a very low debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.0 so it is strange to see weak interest coverage, with last year's EBIT being only 2.2 times the interest expense. So one way or the other, it's clear the debt levels are not trivial. The bad news is that HighPeak Energy saw its EBIT decline by 18% over the last year. If earnings continue to decline at that rate then handling the debt will be more difficult than taking three children under 5 to a fancy pants restaurant. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine HighPeak Energy's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
HighPeak Energy的債務與息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比率非常低,爲1.0,因此奇怪的是,利息覆蓋範圍薄弱,去年的息稅前利潤僅爲利息支出的2.2倍。因此,不管怎樣,很明顯,債務水平並非微不足道。壞消息是,HighPeak Energy的息稅前利潤比去年下降了18%。如果收入繼續以這種速度下降,那麼處理債務將比帶三個5萬億以下的孩子更困難。一家高檔褲子餐廳。毫無疑問,我們從資產負債表中學到的關於債務的知識最多。但是,未來的收益將決定HighPeak Energy未來維持健康資產負債表的能力。因此,如果你想看看專業人士的想法,你可能會發現這份關於分析師利潤預測的免費報告很有趣。
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. During the last three years, HighPeak Energy burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
但是我們最終的考慮因素也很重要,因爲公司無法用紙面利潤來償還債務;它需要冷硬現金。因此,我們顯然需要研究該息稅前利潤是否會帶來相應的自由現金流。在過去的三年中,HighPeak Energy消耗了大量現金。儘管這可能是增長支出的結果,但它確實使債務風險大大增加。
Our View
我們的觀點
To be frank both HighPeak Energy's EBIT growth rate and its track record of converting EBIT to free cash flow make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. But on the bright side, its net debt to EBITDA is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, it seems to us that HighPeak Energy's balance sheet is really quite a risk to the business. For this reason we're pretty cautious about the stock, and we think shareholders should keep a close eye on its liquidity. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with HighPeak Energy .
坦率地說,HighPeak Energy的息稅前利潤增長率及其將息稅前利潤轉換爲自由現金流的往績都使我們對其債務水平感到相當不舒服。但好的一面是,其淨負債佔息稅折舊攤銷前利潤的比例是一個好兆頭,也使我們更加樂觀。總體而言,在我們看來,HighPeak Energy的資產負債表對業務來說確實是一個很大的風險。出於這個原因,我們對該股非常謹慎,我們認爲股東應密切關注其流動性。資產負債表顯然是分析債務時需要關注的領域。但歸根結底,每家公司都可以控制資產負債表之外存在的風險。爲此,你應該注意我們在HighPeak Energy上發現的1個警告標誌。
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
畢竟,如果你對一家資產負債表堅如磐石的快速成長型公司更感興趣,那麼請立即查看我們的淨現金增長股票清單。
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Simply Wall St 的這篇文章本質上是籠統的。我們僅使用公正的方法提供基於歷史數據和分析師預測的評論,我們的文章並非旨在提供財務建議。它不構成買入或賣出任何股票的建議,也沒有考慮到您的目標或財務狀況。我們的目標是爲您提供由基本數據驅動的長期重點分析。請注意,我們的分析可能不會考慮最新的價格敏感型公司公告或定性材料。華爾街只是沒有持有上述任何股票的頭寸。