Brent oil futures have maintained their price floor above US$70 per barrel for much of November, supported by supply disruptions and the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) strategic interventions.
Earlier this month, OPEC postponed a planned production increase, currently curtailed by approximately 2.2 million barrels per day, to January.
While OPEC has not officially commented on oil price levels, the decision is widely perceived as an effort to sustain Brent prices above US$70.
Additionally, outages at two major oil fields have tightened global supply, bolstering prices. Norway's Johan Sverdrup field, accounting for 36% of the country's oil output with a capacity of 755,000 barrels per day, experienced a temporary shutdown due to an onshore power supply issue.
Similarly, Kazakhstan's Tengiz field reduced output by 30% this month amid maintenance, exceeding earlier estimates of a 20% reduction. Repairs are expected to conclude by 23 November.
Despite the current support for prices, analysts predict the tight supply conditions will be short-lived. A potential increase in US production under President-elect Donald Trump, alongside weaker global demand and a stronger dollar, could lead to a breach of Brent's US$70 floor in 2025.
OPEC faces a challenging dilemma: maintaining production cuts risks losing market share to non-OPEC producers, while restoring output could depress prices further, limiting potential gains. As demand remains subdued, oil prices in 2025 are expected to trend lower.
Forbes
