Jinwu Financial News | According to Huaan Securities Research, FY25Q2 Alibaba (09988) revenue was 236.5 billion yuan (yoy +5%), slightly lower than the consistent forecast of 239.4 billion yuan; gross profit was 92.5 billion yuan (yoy +8.6%), higher than the consistent forecast of 90.4 billion yuan. In terms of profitability, adjusted EBITDA and adjusted net profit reached 47.3 billion yuan (yoy -4%, margin 20%) and 36.5 billion yuan (yoy -9%, margin 15%). Adjusted EBITDA was higher than the consensus forecast of 46.9 billion yuan, and adjusted net profit was higher than the consistent forecast of 35.6 billion yuan.
According to the bank, Taotian's GMV growth was driven by a year-on-year double-digit increase in order volume, partly offset by a decrease in average order amount. At the same time, Taotian levied basic software service fees based on GMV on September 1, so the CMR and GMV growth gap shrank, and Taotian's monetization rate remained flat year-on-year in the current quarter. As the penetration rate of merchants promoted across the site increases and service fees increase, the bank believes that Taotian's monetization rate will open up an upward growth channel in the future, and it is recommended to continue to pay attention to the level of Taotian's monetization rate; while the cloud business accelerated month-on-month growth (yoy +7.1%, 5.9% in the previous quarter), public cloud revenue grew by double digits, and revenue from AI-related products achieved three-digit growth. Furthermore, on the profit side, the release of cloud business profits accelerated, and profits significantly exceeded expectations. The adjusted EBITA for the cloud business was 2.66 billion yuan, exceeding BBG's unanimous expectations of 21.3%.
The bank expects Alibaba's FY2025-2027 revenue to be 1006.72/1104.41/1191.96 billion yuan, or +7.9% YoY; non-GAAP net profit is expected to record 154.4/167.87/182.37 billion yuan, or -2%/+9% YoY, maintaining a “buy” rating.
