美联储未来降息步伐的不确定性、以及特朗普当选美国总统后可能实施的政策为美元的表现带来了不确定因素。在这种情况下，一些策略师对欧元兑日元的走势有了更清晰的认识。Strategists at Rabobank, Nomura Securities, and Mizuho Securities expect the euro to fall to a low of 140-150 yen per euro by the end of next year.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that EUR/JPY is receiving more and more attention because the monetary policy differences between the two regions seem to provide an opportunity for the pair. At a time when the Eurozone economy is struggling, the ECB is expected to continue to cut interest rates, and may cut interest rates by another 25 basis points next month. Meanwhile, the market expects the Bank of Japan to continue to normalize its monetary policy, and the possibility of raising interest rates next month is about 50%.
Relatively high interest rates usually boost the corresponding currency because they attract capital seeking higher returns. As a result, these policy differences led traders to bet that the yen would be relatively strong against the euro. According to reports, strategists at Rabobank, Nomura Securities, and Mizuho Securities expect the euro to fall to a low of 140-150 yen per euro by the end of next year. The exchange rate has been outside this range since June 2023 and is currently hovering around 164 yen per euro.
The uncertainty about the future pace of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the policies Trump may implement after his election as US President have brought uncertainty to the dollar's performance. Under these circumstances, some strategists have a clearer idea of the trend of EURJPY.
Moteki Jin, foreign exchange strategist at Nomura Securities, said, “The Bank of Japan is likely to raise interest rates several times in the first half of next year. Therefore, if this happens, spreads will continue to strengthen the yen against the euro.” Mizuho Securities predicts that the exchange rate of yen to the euro will rise to 140 yen per euro by the end of 2025, which will be the highest level since March 2023.
Rabobank also believes that the yen may strengthen against the euro, but its forecast is more cautious. Jane Foley, head of foreign exchange strategy at Rabobank, said in a report: “We expect the ECB's dovish stance to weaken the resilience of the euro next year. We believe there is room for the EUR/JPY exchange rate to fall back to 150 yen per euro after 12 months.” “The Eurozone is also suffering from structural problems and underinvestment.”
