摩根大通的分析师在一份报告中写道：“与宏观数据和全球同行相比，澳洲央行的措辞继续鹰派，但我们预计，在未来的沟通中将转向鸽派立场。”“The Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar held steady on Wednesday (November 20) as the dollar recovered some of its recent sharp gains. Earlier, they hit new one-week highs, and are expected to continue their gains until the fourth trading day.
The dollar's rise has been suspended as markets await who President-elect Trump will choose to serve as Treasury Secretary and how likely this candidate is to push ahead with Trump's comprehensive tariff and tax proposals.
The Australian dollar continues to receive some support from a stable interest rate outlook. The minutes of the previous RBA meeting showed that the bank is still wary of the risk of rising inflation.
An analyst at J.P. Morgan wrote in a report: “Compared to macro data and global peers, the Bank of Australia's wording continues to be hawkish, but we expect it to shift to a dovish stance in future communications.” “We continue to predict that interest rates will be cut for the first time in February, but it is important to note that since decisions are highly dependent on data, this is a close forecast.”
The market suggests that the probability of lowering the cash interest rate to 4.35% in February is only 37%, the possibility of a reduction in April is 58%, and the 25 basis point interest rate cut will not be fully accepted by the market until May.
The next important economic data is the October CPI to be released on November 27. Following a sharp drop to 2.1% year over year in September, it is expected to fall again.
The average measurement of core inflation slowed to 3.2% in September, and is likely to reach the upper limit of the Reserve Bank of Australia's 2%-3% range in October.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New Zealand will meet next week. Investors believe the bank will cut the cash interest rate by 4.75% by 50 basis points, making it lower than the Australian interest rate.
The market also anticipates that the bank is likely to cut interest rates by another 50 basis points in February by 84%, and interest rates will be close to 3.25% by the end of next year.
