对此，已经有不少经济学家警告称，全球贸易摩擦的强度和广度都有可能扩大，甚至可能令美国遭受报复性关税。① Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter stated that Trump's proposed tariffs would lead to higher inflation and weaken US economic growth; ② If the tariff policy is ultimately implemented, Carpenter believes that it will significantly weaken US growth by 2026; ③ Many economists have already questioned Trump's tariff policy, suggesting that it may trigger global trade frictions.
Caixin News Agency on November 20th (Editor - Zhou Ziyi) The tough stance of US President-elect Donald Trump on tariff policy has sparked considerable controversy. Morgan Stanley's Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter mentioned in an interview that Trump's proposed tariffs would lead to higher inflation and weaken future economic growth in the US.
President-elect Trump has repeatedly claimed since his campaign that he intends to impose 10% to 20% tariffs on all imported commodities and impose an additional 60% to 100% extra tariff on Chinese commodities.
In response, many economists have already warned that the intensity and breadth of global trade frictions may expand, potentially leading to retaliatory tariffs against the US.
The current series of thorny issues include whether these tariffs will be implemented, and at what speed they will be implemented.
Carpenter also pointed out that if Trump's tariff policy is implemented, these tariffs will lead to higher inflation. Carpenter emphasized during an interview at Morgan Stanley's annual Asia-Pacific Summit in Singapore that if Trump's tariff policy is implemented, these tariffs will lead to higher inflation.
Carpenter further stated that if these measures are implemented simultaneously, they could have a 'huge negative impact' on the economy. However, he insists on Morgan Stanley's basic assumption that these tariffs will be phased in starting in 2025.
"It is obvious that tariffs will push up inflation; it is also obvious that not only the economies of countries subject to tariffs will be burdened, but the US economy will also be affected together... We believe that by 2026, due to the impact of these tariff policies and some other policies, US economic growth will start to decline significantly."
Not only Carpenter has this concern, Mark Malek, Chief Information Officer of brokerage firm Siebert, also pointed out that if the proposed tariffs are implemented, especially on top of the tariffs already imposed by the Biden administration, a range of industries including autos, consumer electronics, machinery, construction, and retail will face higher inflation.
Malek said that Trump's proposal to impose a 60% tariff on Chinese commodities, along with Biden's current 100% tariff on Chinese-manufactured electric autos, will 'severely impact' the autos industry; while a universal 10% tariff on imported consumer electronics products will increase costs for companies like Tesla, Microsoft, and Apple. As for these high costs, companies will eventually pass them on to consumers, thereby raising inflation.
Data shows that the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6% in October compared to the same period last year, slightly higher than the 2.4% increase in September. Despite the slight rise, the U.S. inflation rate is on a downward trend after being at multi-year highs, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.
