According to the data released by the China Passenger Car Association, from November 1st to 17th, the retail sales of passenger electric vehicles in the market reached 0.581 million vehicles, a 66% year-on-year increase from the same period last November, with a 7% increase from the previous month. Year-to-date retail sales stand at 8.909 million vehicles, showing a 41% year-on-year growth. From November 1st to 17th, the national passenger vehicle manufacturers wholesaled 0.654 million new energy vehicles, a 71% year-on-year increase from the same period last November, with a 20% increase from the previous month. Year-to-date wholesale figures stand at 9.933 million vehicles, up by 38% compared to the same period last year.

From November 1st to 17th, the passenger vehicle market retail sales totaled 1.106 million vehicles, a 30% year-on-year increase from the same period last November, with a 3% increase from the previous month. Year-to-date retail sales reach 18.942 million vehicles, showing a 5% year-on-year growth. From November 1st to 17th, national passenger vehicle manufacturers wholesaled 1.271 million vehicles, a 37% year-on-year increase from the same period last November, with a 22% increase from the previous month. Year-to-date wholesale figures stand at 22.447 million vehicles, up by 6% compared to the same period last year.

In November 2024, the national passenger vehicle market saw robust retail growth.

In the first week of November, the average daily retail sales in the passenger vehicle market were 57,000 units, a 29% year-on-year increase compared to the same period last November, and a 3% decrease compared to the previous month.

During the second week of November, the daily average retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 0.077 million vehicles, a 31% year-on-year increase from the same period last November, with a 10% increase from the previous month.

From November 1st to 17th, the passenger vehicle market retail sales totaled 1.106 million vehicles, a 30% year-on-year increase from the same period last November, with a 3% increase from the previous month. Year-to-date retail sales reach 18.942 million vehicles, showing a 5% year-on-year growth.

By the end of November, the market remained buoyant, with strong policy support encouraging transactions. Rumors of subsidy quotas being depleted in some regions accelerated consumer deals, and actual local subsidies are funded by special national bonds, ensuring they will last through the year-end, resulting in strong November retail performance. Recent strong growth in car purchases is attributed to the national policy of scrapping and replacing, along with subsidies for new policies in various regions. Particularly, the subsidies for electric vehicles under local government's scrappage schemes range from $1000 to $5000 more than for gasoline vehicles, with subsidy gaps narrowing across many regions, leading to a trend of fair competition between electric and gasoline vehicles, a significant highlight of local policies. The national scrappage policy provides strong support for new energy vehicles, with funds allocated by the central government. As local policies balance subsidies for electric and gasoline vehicles, it is encouraging for dealers' survival pressures.

In November 2024, the national passenger vehicle manufacturers' sales gradually strengthened.

In the first week of November, the average daily wholesale of passenger vehicle manufacturers was 0.067 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 41% compared to the same period last November, and a month-on-month increase of 45%.

In the second week of November, the average daily wholesale of passenger vehicle manufacturers was 0.086 million vehicles, a 34% year-on-year increase compared to the same period last November, and a 4% increase compared to the previous month.

From November 1st to 17th, the national passenger vehicle manufacturers wholesale 1.271 million vehicles, a 37% year-on-year increase compared to the same period last November, a 22% increase compared to the previous month; Cumulatively, 22.447 million vehicles have been wholesaled this year, a 6% increase year-on-year.

The sales trend of manufacturers in November continues to be strong. The replacement policy begins to succeed the scrapping subsidy policy, igniting the market; the scrapping policy is more bullish for new energy, and its effects will gradually diminish later. However, the stimulating effect of the replacement policy is greater than that of scrapping, and the stimulating effect of rbob gasoline vehicles is significant.

The destocking efforts in the passenger vehicle industry this year have been very strong. Due to continuous destocking by joint venture car companies and recent overall cautious production, the overall domestic manufacturers and channel inventory of passenger vehicles decreased by 0.94 million vehicles from January to October this year (compared to a decrease of only 0.11 million vehicles in the same period last year), making dealer operations extremely difficult, with destocking becoming mainstream. However, November should be in a seasonal restocking period for the passenger vehicle market, as the demand for car purchases is strong from winter to the Chinese New Year. Therefore, historically this is a period of significant restocking. With a reasonable demand for restocking in November, dealers' purchasing pace in November is fast, reflecting improved channel confidence.

In October 2024, automobile production increased by 5%, with new energy vehicles reaching 1.43 million units and a 48% penetration rate. Auto consumption increased by 4%.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 4539.6 billion yuan, a 4.8% year-on-year increase, with a growth rate 1.6 percentage points faster than the previous month. Among them, automotive consumption was 445.2 billion yuan, a 4% year-on-year increase, while non-automotive retail sales amounted to 4094.4 billion yuan, representing a 4.9% growth. From January to October, total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39896 billion yuan, a 3.5% year-on-year increase. Automotive consumption totaled 3992.1 billion yuan, a 2% year-on-year decrease, while non-automotive retail sales amounted to 35903.9 billion yuan, showing a 3.9% increase.

In 2024, the demand for auto production is steadily increasing, social consumption expectations continue to improve, high-quality development is solidly promoted, and the auto industry continues the trend of recovery and improvement. Currently, the price of commercial housing in 2024 is 9,862 yuan per square meter, with a small difference from the peak of 10,437 yuan per square meter, much higher than the 6,323 yuan per square meter in 2014, and significantly higher than the peak auto sales price in 2017 of 7,892 yuan. Real estate loans have significantly tightened, and real estate investment mainly relies on residents' down payments and prepayments, which have a certain diversion impact on car purchase funds. The relationship between auto sales and real estate sales in 2023 is 37 square meters per unit car, which continues to decrease to 32 square meters per unit car in 2024, showing a slight improvement in the comparison between real estate and autos, which is more reasonable than the peak of 70 square meters per unit car in 2020. Due to debt pressure, auto demand is relatively sluggish. As the only consumer product not widely popularized in Chinese urban and rural families, the overall trend of the national passenger vehicle market has been warming up in recent years, gradually improving passenger vehicle consumption.

With the replacement policy for passenger vehicles starting to take over the scrappage subsidy policy, it has ignited the October auto market; the scrappage policy is more bullish for new energy vehicles, but the scale is limited. The stimulating effect of the replacement policy for passenger vehicles in various places in recent days is expected to be greater than scrapping, and the stimulus effect on gasoline vehicles is significant. Looking forward to strong follow-up policies for scrappage and replacement in 2025, including tax relief for car buyers, promoting new energy vehicles in rural areas, exempting car purchase tax for pure electric vehicles with a range of under 200 kilometers, encouraging marriage and childbirth car purchases, and more improvement measures to boost car consumption and promote economic growth.

The domestic insurance trend for national commercial vehicles is positive with a clear destocking.

According to the data from the National Financial Bureau on compulsory insurance, the data for domestic commercial vehicle compulsory insurance experienced strong growth before 2021, entering a phase of slow growth recently. Due to complex disruptions from the Spring Festival, domestic commercial vehicle compulsory insurance showed a relatively sluggish performance in January and February this year, but in March, it rebounded significantly after the holidays and continued to decline from April to October. From January to October this year, domestic insurance for commercial vehicles reached 2.32 million units, a 3% year-on-year decrease; in October, domestic sales of commercial vehicles reached 0.225 million units, a 5% year-on-year decrease and a 1% decrease from the previous month. In recent years, the export market for gasoline commercial vehicles has surged, while the domestic market for gasoline vehicles has drastically declined, leading to a huge disparity in domestic and international demand trends.

From January to October 2024, the sales of new energy commercial vehicles reached 0.435 million units, an 87% year-on-year increase; in October 2024, it reached 0.055 million units, a 64% year-on-year increase. In the first ten months of 2024, the penetration rate of new energy commercial vehicles reached 19% of the overall commercial vehicles, with the penetration rate of new energy vehicles reaching 25% in October, an 11 percentage point increase compared to October last year, driven by the strong performance of new energy light commercial vehicles and other markets under policy support.

Analysis of lithium battery market for new energy vehicles in October 2024.

In October 2024, the installation of lithium batteries was 59.2Wh, a 51% year-on-year increase. The installation of ternary batteries was 12.2GWh, a 1% year-on-year decrease, accounting for 21%, lower than the same period; while the installation volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries was 47GWh, with a 75% year-on-year growth rate, accounting for 79%, the growth of ternary batteries has slowed down. From January to October, the installation of lithium batteries reached 406GWh, a 38% year-on-year increase.

According to the qualified certificate battery volume calculation, the production volume of qualified new energy vehicle products in October 2024 was 1.28 million units, a 51% year-on-year increase. From January to October, it reached 8.69 million units, a strong 39% year-on-year increase, with pure electric passenger cars at 4.71 million units, an 18% year-on-year increase, plug-in hybrid passenger cars at 3.53 million units, an 81% year-on-year increase, and pure electric special vehicles at 0.41 million units, a 46% year-on-year increase, which is a positive production data.

Contemporary Amperex Technology and BYD have relatively strong characteristics in the competitive landscape of battery enterprises. Currently, the gap between BYD and Contemporary Amperex Technology remains significant, with BYD's market share rising from 15% in 2020 to 25% in 2024, and further increasing to 26.9% in October; while Contemporary Amperex Technology's market share in October dropped to 43%, showing a clear differentiation trend among other battery enterprises. The top enterprises in the battery industry have shown a slowing aggregation effect, with the top two enterprises accounting for 72% in 2022, maintaining a 70% share this year, leaving approximately 30% of space for other enterprises.

In the past two years, the new energy vehicle and energy storage industries have been highly prosperous, leading to a rapid growth in demand for batteries, while the proportion of batteries used in new energy vehicles has decreased. Due to the slowdown in the growth rate of the export electric vehicle market, the demand for electric vehicle battery installations has been growing slower than the total domestic vehicle production. The higher prices of nickel and cobalt have resulted in differential growth between ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries. With the growth of long-range products, ternary batteries still have a market, while the price reduction drives an increasing proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries. Due to the adjustment impact of the tax exemption policy on increasing electric vehicle range in the first half of this year, the shrinking of low-end micro electric vehicles, and the soft trend in pure electric vehicles, extended-range and plug-in hybrids continue to strengthen. However, the July policy of scrapping and upgrading passenger cars, along with the implementation of the old-for-new policy in September, both significantly benefit micro electric cars. The growth in pure electric vehicles in September and October is strong, with a notable increase in the proportion of 125-140 watt-hour per kilogram batteries.