现货黄金交投于每盎司2624美元附近，今年已上涨28%。UBS expects gold to rise to 2,900 US dollars per ounce by the end of next year as central bank holdings increase, in line with Goldman Sachs's view that gold will rise further.
UBS analysts Levi Spry, Lachlan Shaw and others said in the report that due to the strengthening of the US dollar and concerns in the gold market that interest rates may rise due to increased US fiscal stimulus measures, the price of gold may experience a period of consolidation and then begin to rise again. They said the price of gold will rise slightly further, to 2,950 US dollars per ounce by the end of 2026.
“The US Republican Party's sweep of both houses, strong interest in diversification, and rising global uncertainty will continue to support the price of gold,” analysts said. “In the context of high macroeconomic volatility and continued geopolitical risks, continued strategic allocation and official procurement of gold may drive up the price of gold,” they said.
Spot gold is trading around $2,624 an ounce and has risen 28% this year.
Goldman Sachs said this week that the price of gold is expected to rise to $3,000 per ounce by the end of next year. The structural driver of this expectation is increased demand from central banks, and the cyclical boost will come from funds flowing to exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.
UBS also mentioned that central banks have increased their gold holdings. The report said, “For the purpose of diversification, as well as the risk of geopolitical tension and sanctions, the government is inclined to buy physical gold bars and may continue to increase reserves. Many central banks' gold reserves are still very small as a percentage of total assets.”
