On November 21, Cailian Press (Editor: Huang Junzhi) reported that a commodity expert stated that despite the continuous decline in the price of gold since Donald Trump won the US presidential election, the significant uncertainty surrounding "Trump 2.0" indicates that the gold price is set to reach new highs.

Senior commodity analyst and founder of CPM Group, Jeffrey Christian, predicts that the gold price will reach a new historical high by the end of January next year.

In a recent report to clients, he speculates that gold may remain stable for several months before rebounding to cyclical peaks by 2026, meaning that in the first year of the Trump administration, gold will set multiple historical highs.

Since election day, the gold price has dropped by around 4%. Christian believes that the decline in the gold price may be due to investors taking profits, as they cashed out when the gold price hit historical highs at the end of October.

Seeking a safe haven.

Regarding the above speculations, Christian explained that a significant rebound driven by the substantial uncertainty surrounding the policies of the elected president will lead investors to flock to gold, silver, US government bonds, and other defensive assets for safety.

"What they are saying (the policies proposed by Trump) have internal contradictions, it is not clear at all what can be done. This has brought a series of new uncertainties, which will cause investors to avoid risks. When they are uncertain, when they are worried about the direction of the economy, they will buy dollars, buy US government bonds, buy gold and silver," he wrote.

Many economists believe that some of Trump's economic policies may have the opposite effect of what he claims.

For example, experts describe Trump's plan to impose high tariffs on imported goods as inflation, a claim that Trump has refuted. He implemented tariffs in his first term in 2017, but inflation did not rise significantly. However, economists point out that his new tariff plan is much more comprehensive, explaining the difference in inflation forecasts before and after.

Christian points out that the CPM Group insists on its prediction that the U.S. economy may experience a recession in the next 24 months. He adds that if Trump's economic policies have a wide-reaching impact, the recession may come earlier or be more severe.

"The statements of President-elect Trump and his colleagues are contradictory," he said. "You can look at some of the things they said, like extreme austerity measures, budget cuts, government spending cuts, which could accelerate the recession (bring it forward and deepen it)."

However, most economists still believe that as inflation trends approach the Fed's 2% target and economic growth remains stable, the United States will achieve.But after the bursting of the internet bubble and the Fed's rate cut in 2001, the ROI dropped by more than 10%.In October, the inflation rate rose by 2.6%, in line with economists' expectations. Meanwhile, according to the latest GDPNow data from the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank, actual GDP for the fourth quarter is expected to reach 2.6%.