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华创证券：维持携程集团-S(09961)“推荐”评级 目标价570港元

Zhitong Finance ·  Nov 21, 2024 01:13

华创证券预计24~26年携程集团营收分别为530、606、689亿元。

智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研究报告称，维持携程集团-S(09961)“推荐”评级，基于公司Q3超预期，上调收入和利润预测，预计24~26年公司营收分别为530、606、689亿元，non-GAAP净利润分别为179、200、227亿元，目标价570港元/股。国内消费政策偏向积极，旅游作为服务消费拉力和精神文化刚需，中长期景气度均具备韧性，OTA行业同时具备在线化率提升逻辑，受益行业发展。

事件：24Q3公司实现净营收158.7亿元，同比增长15.5%，经调整经营利润(non gaapop)54.7亿元，同比增长23.7%;净利润68.2亿元，同比增长47.1%;non gaap归母净利润59.6亿元，同比增长21.8%。24Q3公司毛利率82.4%，同比+0.3pct环比+0.5pct，经调整经营利润率34.4%，同比+2.3pct，环比+1.3pct。

华创证券主要观点如下：

24Q3公司营收和利润均超预期。

营收分板块来看，24Q3住宿、交通、度假商旅、其他同比分别增长21.7%、5.3%、17.3%、11.0%、40.9%，住宿和交通板块收入均略超预期，其中住宿收入占比达到42.9%，同比+2.2pct，环比+2.6pct，支撑毛利率、经营净利率同环比提升。

国内维持稳健，出境和海外保持高增长。

分国内外来看，国内相对稳健，出境酒店和机票预订恢复至2019年120%水平(Q2公司恢复至19年水平，据航班管家，我国民航国际航班量24Q3恢复至2019年的78.3%);国际OTA平台Trip酒店和机票预订同比增长超过60%，维持高速增长。

公司整体费用控制表现优异。

24Q3公司研发费用率22.9%、同比-3.1pct，环比-0.5pct;管理费用率6.6%，同比-0.9pct、环比-1.8pct，同比降幅较大。24Q3营销费用率21.3%，同比+1.2pct，主要系海外投放加速。

四季度为国内旅游淡季，景气度保持相对稳定，酒店价格压力预计逐步缓解，机票附营相关的佣金收费影响减弱，回归正常状态。Q4海外旅游偏旺，Trip收入占比预计有所提升，或推升销售费用率同环比提升。

风险提示：国内消费需求较弱，出境航班恢复不及预期，国际关系或者安全性事件导致出入境受限，行业竞争加剧等。

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