According to the Financial Associated Press on November 21 (Reporter Zeng Chuchu), "Using 'stormy weather and rainbows, the industry has entered a rational and positive new stage' to describe the current lithium battery industry is not a flattering term, but a true judgment of the market." At the 2024 High-Tech Lithium Battery Annual Conference held yesterday, Liu Jincheng, chairman of Eve Energy Co., Ltd. (300014.SZ), stated this. After undergoing a deep clearance, the industry has high expectations for the lithium battery sector next year. Zhang Xiaofei, chairman of High-Tech Lithium Battery, predicts that the first quarter of next year will mark the lowest price point, with the prices of battery main materials starting to rise in the second quarter.

In addition, several guests and companies at the forum emphasized the importance of overseas expansion. In response to the emerging challenges of going overseas, Zeng Yiqun, chairman of Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750.SZ), stated via online participation, "Perhaps any policy may bring us short-term ups and downs or impacts, but in the long run, humanity's efforts to address the electric vehicle industry and tackle climate change will not diminish; the ultimate goal remains the sustainable development of our shared home."

The price may hit bottom in the first quarter of next year.

Regarding the price performance of the battery industry chain next year, Zhang Xiaofei stated that the first quarter will be the lowest point and predicted that the prices of battery main materials will begin to rise in the second quarter. A pause in the price war is expected in the first half of next year.

At the 2024 High-Tech Lithium Battery Annual Conference held yesterday, Zhang Xiaofei determined that the battery costs will temporarily reach bottom, expecting that in Q4 of this year, the cost of cells will be between 0.25-0.3 yuan/Wh, with material prices still expected to decline during the traditional off-season in the first quarter of next year. The projected cell cost in Q1 of 2025 is expected to be 0.25-0.28 yuan/Wh, and it will continue to explore until 2030.

In fact, leading companies in the electrolyte sector have also indicated to reporters from the Financial Associated Press that although it is uncertain when prices will rebound, next year will certainly not be worse than this year.

Meanwhile, industry companies are facing challenges due to debt pressures. Zhang Xiaofei analyzed that battery companies have high debt levels, and financial pressure is gradually shifting to material companies, which have extended their payment terms. According to data from Q3 of this year, the accounts receivable period for iron-lithium materials and electrolytes increased by 73% and 58% year-on-year, respectively.

In terms of future trends, the data shared by Zhang Xiaofei from the High-tech Industry Research Institute (GGII) indicates that in 2024, lithium battery shipments in south korea will exceed 1.1 TWh. From the shipping structure perspective, the passenger vehicle sector accounts for over 50%, and the energy storage battery accounts for about 25%. "By 2030, it is expected that electrical utilities and exports will account for 40% of the shipment volume, and these two areas will grow very rapidly," said Zhang Xiaofei.

Zhang Xiaofei also issued a risk warning, stating that the competitive landscape of the lithium battery industry chain will become more severe in the future, with increased capacity thresholds. The share of first and second-tier companies will grow while the share of third-tier and below will decline. In 2024, the capacity threshold for mainstream lithium battery material suppliers will be over 0.1 million tons, and by 2030, it will exceed 0.2 million tons. "Our capacity threshold, including our main materials, has increased from the previous 0.01 million tons to this year's 0.1 million tons, and in the future, those without this tonnage will definitely be eliminated." The materials mentioned include cathode material, anode material, and electrolyte.

Despite facing pressures of capacity and profits, the rapid development of new energy storage, the low-altitude economy, and the growth of humanoid robot products are all providing new support for lithium products. Within the industry,Mergerrestructuring and strategic cooperation are continuously emerging, with market share further concentrating towards leading enterprises.

Zhao Weijun, president of Faraday Power's China region, stated that as one of the key technologies for the new power system, electrochemical energy storage will further drive the demand for lithium batteries. It is expected that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China's electrochemical energy storage demand will reach 200-300 GWh/year, and the global energy storage demand will be 400-600 GWh/year. The GGII data cited by Zhang Xiaofei indicates that by 2030, the shipment volume of lithium batteries in emerging fields such as ships, mining trucks, humanoid robots, and eVTOLs will exceed 100 GWh.

Leading enterprises emphasize the importance of overseas布局.

Speakers at the forum emphasized the importance of overseas expansion, with Zhang Xiaofei predicting that by 2030, the overseas market share of lithium battery shipments will gradually increase.

Liu Jincheng emphasized the company's overseas progress, stating that in the past five years, eve energy co.,ltd. has built 10 factories. Currently under construction overseas are the Hungary factory and the Malaysia factory. The Hungary factory is located next to the BMW industrial park, and the ground works have been completed. The factory will be completed by the end of next year. The Malaysia factory will serve the global market based in asia and is expected to be operational in the first quarter of next year. The Hungary factory will gradually complete production and delivery in the next two to three years.

Despite the price decline faced by the lithium battery industry chain over the past two years, eve energy co.,ltd. has not stopped expanding production. Liu Jincheng introduced that the inauguration ceremony for the large lithium battery factory will be held in Jingmen on December 10, with a production capacity of 17GWh per line annually. The cylindrical lithium iron phosphate battery factory in Qujing is currently operating at full capacity.

Liu Jincheng stated that eve energy co.,ltd.'s sales have been continuously rising over the past five years. Although battery prices have dropped this year, the company's sales have not diminished, and it is believed that from 2025 to 2027, eve energy co.,ltd. will enter a new growth cycle.

In the past year, ningbo ronbay new energy technology (688005.SH) has accelerated its overseas layout progress. The chairman Bai Houshan stated that the company has acquired a UK company in europe, which may become one of the first Chinese companies to produce lithium battery cathode materials in europe; a holding company has been established in North America, with site selection inspection mainly in the usa that will soon finalize the factory location; southeast asia is also a key area for entry. South korea's 0.02 million tons cathode material factory has officially started production, while the 0.04 million tons ternary cathode material factory is about to be topped off. By Q4 this year, ningbo ronbay new energy technology's factory in south korea will reach full production capacity. Bai Houshan said, "The overseas situation is one of supply not meeting demand."

Across the lithium battery industry chain, many companies have plans to build factories overseas this year. Ganfenglithium (002460.SZ) announced in August plans to build a battery factory in Turkey; in July, following investment plans in Hungary and Morocco, sunwoda electronic (300207.SZ) plans to build its first consumer battery factory in Vietnam; eve energy co.,ltd. plans to invest 3 billion in Malaysia to establish storage battery and consumer battery manufacturing projects; in June, electrolyte leader yunnan energy new material (002812.SZ) announced the construction of a new phase factory in Hungary; in March, lithium hexafluorophosphate leader do-fluoride new materials (002407.SZ) formally began overseas capacity layout, planning to jointly build lithium hexafluorophosphate capacity in south korea with a south korean company.

Bai Houshan mentioned: "Only by constructing a global, systematic company can we ultimately break free from internal competition."

It is noteworthy that the lithium battery industry is facing multiple challenges in shipments. The usa has the IRA (Inflation Reduction Act) outlining targeted subsidies for local businesses in relation to "foreign entities of concern"; europe has introduced the EU Battery and Waste Battery Regulations, which propose new regulatory requirements such as carbon footprint declarations, battery passports, and material recycling. Recently, reports have indicated that the EU plans to require Chinese companies establishing factories to transfer technology to european companies in exchange for subsidies.

Zeng Yuqun expressed through an online conference that "Currently, the international situation is changing distinctly, and everyone faces different uncertainties. Perhaps any policy could cause short-term fluctuations and impacts on us, but in the long term, humanity's efforts to cope with the electric vehicles industry and climate change will not diminish. The ultimate goal remains the sustainable development of a shared home, so we must all have confidence, continue to strengthen our fundamentals, keep innovating, and work together to enable China's industry chain and technology to continue to develop and overcome numerous difficulties."