Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that ESR Group Limited (HKG:1821) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.
How Much Debt Does ESR Group Carry?
As you can see below, at the end of June 2024, ESR Group had US$6.19b of debt, up from US$5.63b a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$1.10b, its net debt is less, at about US$5.09b.
How Healthy Is ESR Group's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that ESR Group had liabilities of US$2.19b due within a year, and liabilities of US$5.58b falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had US$1.10b in cash and US$365.4m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling US$6.30b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
When you consider that this deficiency exceeds the company's US$6.03b market capitalization, you might well be inclined to review the balance sheet intently. In the scenario where the company had to clean up its balance sheet quickly, it seems likely shareholders would suffer extensive dilution.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
Weak interest cover of 0.48 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 37.2 hit our confidence in ESR Group like a one-two punch to the gut. This means we'd consider it to have a heavy debt load. Even worse, ESR Group saw its EBIT tank 82% over the last 12 months. If earnings continue to follow that trajectory, paying off that debt load will be harder than convincing us to run a marathon in the rain. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine ESR Group's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. In the last three years, ESR Group created free cash flow amounting to 20% of its EBIT, an uninspiring performance. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.
Our View
To be frank both ESR Group's interest cover and its track record of (not) growing its EBIT make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And even its level of total liabilities fails to inspire much confidence. After considering the datapoints discussed, we think ESR Group has too much debt. While some investors love that sort of risky play, it's certainly not our cup of tea. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for ESR Group you should be aware of.
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
