“如果通货膨胀过高，成本是显而易见的。因此，2%的通胀率并不会对美国人民造成扭曲或困难，但它确实给了我们更大的空间来实现我们的最大就业和低而稳定的通胀目标。2%的长期目标早在2012年就有了意义，现在仍然有意义。”New York Federal Reserve Governor John Williams recently said in an interview that he believes inflation is cooling down and interest rates will fall further.
Williams said that the US economy is growing very well, the labor market is steadily cooling down, and the inflation rate is falling steadily from a very high level. By the end of next year, the federal funds rate will be lower than it is now. That will depend on the data and the progress we make.
Williams believes that a 2% interest rate is the best balance between the Federal Reserve's employment and price stability goals. He said, “My way of thinking is, what kind of inflation rate can best balance maximum employment and price stability? Some might say price stability means 0% inflation. But if you really want to achieve 0% inflation, then achieving maximum employment on a sustained basis will be very challenging because the lower interest rate limit is zero, or there is a risk of deflation.”
“If inflation is too high, the costs are obvious. Thus, the 2% inflation rate will not distort or make it difficult for the American people, but it does give us more room to achieve our goals of maximum employment and low but stable inflation. The long-term goal of 2% made sense as early as 2012, and it's still relevant now.”
When asked about the impact of Trump's second term on the independence of the Federal Reserve, Williams said, “I can't predict what people will argue about, but you won't be surprised that the independence of our monetary policy is important. Based on evidence from around the world, we've seen that central banks that can make monetary policy decisions without political or other influence — based only on data, analysis, evidence, and goals to achieve their goals — are doing better, particularly in achieving low and stable inflation.”
Williams added, “Independence is a good thing for central banks, not only in the US, but around the world.”
