Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We note that Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE:LUV) does have debt on its balance sheet. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
How Much Debt Does Southwest Airlines Carry?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Southwest Airlines had US$7.98b in debt in September 2024; about the same as the year before. However, it does have US$9.38b in cash offsetting this, leading to net cash of US$1.41b.
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How Healthy Is Southwest Airlines' Balance Sheet?
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Southwest Airlines had liabilities of US$13.5b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$10.9b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$9.38b and US$1.18b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total US$13.9b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit is considerable relative to its very significant market capitalization of US$19.4b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Southwest Airlines' use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution. Despite its noteworthy liabilities, Southwest Airlines boasts net cash, so it's fair to say it does not have a heavy debt load!
On the other hand, Southwest Airlines saw its EBIT drop by 9.3% in the last twelve months. If earnings continue to decline at that rate the company may have increasing difficulty managing its debt load. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Southwest Airlines's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. Southwest Airlines may have net cash on the balance sheet, but it is still interesting to look at how well the business converts its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, because that will influence both its need for, and its capacity to manage debt. During the last three years, Southwest Airlines burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
Summing Up
While Southwest Airlines does have more liabilities than liquid assets, it also has net cash of US$1.41b. Despite the cash, we do find Southwest Airlines's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow concerning, so we're not particularly comfortable with the stock. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 1 warning sign with Southwest Airlines , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.