Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.'s (NYSE:AJG) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 55.4x might make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in the United States, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 18x and even P/E's below 11x are quite common. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.
There hasn't been much to differentiate Arthur J. Gallagher's and the market's earnings growth lately. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this modest earnings performance will accelerate. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.
How Is Arthur J. Gallagher's Growth Trending?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as steep as Arthur J. Gallagher's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market decidedly.
Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any earnings per share growth to speak of for the company over the past year. Still, the latest three year period was better as it's delivered a decent 13% overall rise in EPS. Therefore, it's fair to say that earnings growth has been inconsistent recently for the company.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 24% per annum as estimated by the ten analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially higher than the 11% per year growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's understandable that Arthur J. Gallagher's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are expecting this strong future growth and are willing to pay more for the stock.
What We Can Learn From Arthur J. Gallagher's P/E?
Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
As we suspected, our examination of Arthur J. Gallagher's analyst forecasts revealed that its superior earnings outlook is contributing to its high P/E. Right now shareholders are comfortable with the P/E as they are quite confident future earnings aren't under threat. It's hard to see the share price falling strongly in the near future under these circumstances.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 2 warning signs for Arthur J. Gallagher that you should be aware of.
You might be able to find a better investment than Arthur J. Gallagher. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
