During the European session on Thursday (November 21), the US dollar index stopped falling and stabilized. The intraday report was 106.7116, an increase of 0.07%. The following is a technical analysis of four currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, and AUD/USD.

EUR/USD: Resuming the downtrend

(EUR/USD daily chart source: eHuitong)

The EUR/USD exchange rate resumed its downward trend after the European Central Bank (ECB) warned of a potential debt crisis and slow growth in the region. The exchange rate fell to 1.0513 intraday, erasing all gains from earlier this week.

Looking ahead, there will be no major economic data for Europe and the US on Thursday. The key potential catalyst will be a statement from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane (Philip Lane), which could reveal more details about the ECB's next steps.

The EUR/USD exchange rate has continued to weaken over the past few months. It's already down more than 6% from its highest level this year.

EUR/USD formed a death cross pattern at the 200-day and 50-day moving averages. Furthermore, it has formed a breakout and backtest pattern, testing again after the euro fell to its lowest level of 1.0600 on April 16.

The MACD and Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicators both point downward, which is a sign that downward movement can increase.

EURUSD is likely to continue to fall amid rising geopolitical risks. This view will become more valid if the pair falls below the key support level of 1.0497, the lowest level in October last year. The stop loss for this trade will be at 1.0670.

GBP/USD: Pressure continues

(GBP/USD daily chart source: eHuitong)

The GBP/USD exchange rate continued to be under pressure after the UK published stronger inflation data on Wednesday.

UK inflation remained stable in October, according to data from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS). The overall consumer price index (CPI) rose from 0.0% in September to 0.6% in October. This increase meant an annual growth rate of 1.7% to 2.3%, higher than the median estimate of 2.2%. This is also higher than the 2.2% median estimate. This means that the Bank of England will probably not cut interest rates at the December meeting.

The GBP/USD pair regained some of this week's gains after the UK released strong inflation data. The exchange rate fell from a high of 1.2715 to 1.2645 and fell below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of 1.2735.

GBP/USD has fallen below the Ichimoku equilibrium cloud indicator and the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages (EMA). It also retreated below Andrew's pitchfork tool.

Both MACD and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) point downward. The seller's next target is 1.2550. This bearish view will invalidate if the pair rises above the resistance level of 1.2715.

USD/CHF: Strong Rebound

(USD/CHF daily chart source: eHuitong)

The 0.8800 level provides a major support level. As long as the exchange rate can stay above this level, the trend will either increase or remain sideways.

On the upside, if the exchange rate breaks above the 0.8900 level, then the price is likely to rise rapidly towards 0.9000 after that.

Conversely, if the price falls below the 0.88 level, the 200-day EMA near the 0.8750 level can provide quite a bit of support. Below this, 0.8700 is an important support level, and the 50-day EMA is near here. If it falls below this level, the overall momentum of USD/CHF is likely to change.

AUD/USD: in a downward trend

(AUD/USD daily chart source: eHuitong)

AUD/USD pulled back in overnight trading as the US Dollar Index (DXY) and government bond yields soared. The pair fell back to a significant support level of 0.6500, erasing some of the gains from earlier this week.

The daily chart shows that the AUD/USD exchange rate has been in a downward trend over the past few months. The AUD/USD pair faced strong resistance at 0.6530 after trying to bounce back this week.

When the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages cross, this combination forms a death cross pattern. AUD/USD fell below the low of 0.6625 on September 11th.

The capital flow index is already slightly above the oversold level of 20, and the MACD indicator has also fallen below the zero line. As a result, the pair is likely to continue to decline, and sellers are targeting the next key point of 0.6347. This view will be confirmed if AUD/USD falls below the key support level of last Friday's low of 0.6443.

On the other hand, if it rises above this week's high of 0.6530, the bearish view will fail. If that happens, the pair could rebound and retest 0.6625 points.

EUR/USD declined 0.22% to 1.0520/21. GBP/USD declined 0.12% to 1.2636/37. USD/CHF fell 0.08% to 0.8834/36. AUD/USD rose 0.20% to 0.6518/19.