Author: Jack

Bitcoin is running for 100,000 US dollars, yet the coin trading community is very quiet. After Trump's election, everyone was looking forward to an influx of liquidity, yet apart from meme hype fueled by Binance, all altcoins were left far behind by BTC. why? Why is Bitcoin rising recently, falling, bitcoin falling, copycat or falling?

The answer is probably in the $MSTR stock.

MicroStrategy's purchase of Bitcoin is nothing new in the coin industry; it has been the BTC index in US stocks since the last cycle. However, in September of this year, MSTR once again attracted the attention of the market. This time it's because MSTR actually started early before the Bitcoin price rose, and maintained a continuous premium on Bitcoin in the subsequent market.

The NAV Net Asset Value Premium (NAV) is highly correlated with MicroStrategy's stock issuance activity. Shortly after MSTR is issued, this premium coefficient will move upward. According to MSTR Tracker, the NAV premium has now reached around 3.3.

As a result, many people began to discuss “why does MSTR have a premium”. In fact, MicroStrategy started a new coin buying strategy called “premium issuance” in a low-key manner in the middle to late last year.

Simply put, MicroStrategy has always raised funds to buy BTC by issuing bonds, which also means that behind each MSTR share represents a certain amount of BTC (which is why it is regarded as the US BTC index), but the “premium increase” model is simpler, crude, and immediately effective: when the price of Bitcoin rises and the company's market value rises, MSTR will generate a premium on the Bitcoin exchange rate.

At this point, the company issued additional MSTR shares and bought more bitcoins at a premium than the corresponding amount of shares. Thus, the BTC corresponding to each MSTR share will rise further, which means that the company's market value and the value of MSTR will also rise, and then recirculate and continue to fly.

Summary in one sentence: the more MSTR is issued, the more valuable it is.

What does this have to do with the Bitcoin bull market? In addition to the fact that microstrategies account for 5% of total circulation, US stocks now seem to be experiencing a paradigm shift. MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor has been stressing this year that US stocks will have more and more MSTR, and he also called his model an “infinite money glitch.” At first, many people were not convinced, but recently, when US stock giants such as Microsoft have begun to discuss “Bitcoin finance,” you can feel that the cog of fate has begun to turn.

In other words, if Saylor's vision continues to become a reality, more and more US stock companies will adopt a “premium increase” Bitcoin finance, and the price of Bitcoin will be further tied to US stocks. However, this huge amount of liquidity will be carried entirely by BTC, and has nothing to do with other cryptocurrencies (this is one reason why Bitcoin ETF inflows have recently surged, while Ethereum ETFs have not had any turbulence).

Predictably, if the crypto industry stops in terms of narrative innovation and practical ability, Bitcoin will gradually drift away from Crypto. Against this backdrop, there are only two betas left in the bull market: one is Bitcoin, and the other is Solana, which undertakes liquidity within the industry.