Despite an already strong run, Guangdong Mingzhu Group Co.,Ltd (SHSE:600382) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 28% in the last thirty days. Notwithstanding the latest gain, the annual share price return of 2.1% isn't as impressive.

Following the firm bounce in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Guangdong Mingzhu GroupLtd is a stock to steer clear of with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 7.2x, considering almost half the companies in China's Trade Distributors industry have P/S ratios below 0.9x. However, the P/S might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

How Guangdong Mingzhu GroupLtd Has Been Performing

For instance, Guangdong Mingzhu GroupLtd's receding revenue in recent times would have to be some food for thought. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/S from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

What Are Revenue Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/S?

In order to justify its P/S ratio, Guangdong Mingzhu GroupLtd would need to produce outstanding growth that's well in excess of the industry.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 37% decrease to the company's top line. This means it has also seen a slide in revenue over the longer-term as revenue is down 84% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing revenue over that time.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 14% growth in the next 12 months, the company's downward momentum based on recent medium-term revenue results is a sobering picture.

With this information, we find it concerning that Guangdong Mingzhu GroupLtd is trading at a P/S higher than the industry. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. There's a very good chance existing shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the recent negative growth rates.

The Key Takeaway

The strong share price surge has lead to Guangdong Mingzhu GroupLtd's P/S soaring as well. While the price-to-sales ratio shouldn't be the defining factor in whether you buy a stock or not, it's quite a capable barometer of revenue expectations.

Our examination of Guangdong Mingzhu GroupLtd revealed its shrinking revenue over the medium-term isn't resulting in a P/S as low as we expected, given the industry is set to grow. When we see revenue heading backwards and underperforming the industry forecasts, we feel the possibility of the share price declining is very real, bringing the P/S back into the realm of reasonability. Should recent medium-term revenue trends persist, it would pose a significant risk to existing shareholders' investments and prospective investors will have a hard time accepting the current value of the stock.

Having said that, be aware Guangdong Mingzhu GroupLtd is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis, you should know about.

It's important to make sure you look for a great company, not just the first idea you come across. So if growing profitability aligns with your idea of a great company, take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with strong recent earnings growth (and a low P/E).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.