Germany's medical cannabis imports reached 20.1 tons in Q3 2024, a substantial increase from previous quarters. This surge follows the April 2024 revision of the country's narcotics law, which has facilitated greater access to medical cannabis.

Despite this growth, medical cannabis users still represent less than 0.3% of the population, indicating significant potential for market expansion.

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Rejection Rates And Market Dynamics

Historically, approximately 40% of imported cannabis in Germany has been either rejected or re-exported, with pharmacies purchasing about 60% of imports, according to analyst Pablo Zuanic of Zuanic and Associates.

In Q3 2024, as importers rushed to build inventories, rejection rates likely increased, potentially resulting in pharmacies purchasing between 50% and 55% of imports.

This suggests that out of the 20.1 tons imported, pharmacies acquired between 10 and 11 tons, doubling the levels seen before the April reforms.

Shifts In Exporter Market Shares

Canada remains the largest supplier, exporting 8.1 tons to Germany in Q3 2024. However, its market share declined to 40% from 59% in Q1. Several Canadian companies actively operate in Germany's cannabis market, including Aurora Cannabis Inc. (NASDAQ:ACB), Canopy Growth Corporation (NASDAQ:CGC), and Tilray Brands Inc. (NASDAQ:TLRY), leveraging their expertise in cultivation and distribution to meet the growing demand.

Portugal's share increased to 21%, with Denmark at 13%, and Spain and Uruguay each contributing 5%. Notably, the Netherlands' share dropped to 2% from 8% in 2023.

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Implications For The Market

The annualized value of Germany's medical cannabis market is estimated at €352 million (US$375 million). According to Zuanic, "With less than 0.3% of the population currently using medical cannabis, the market remains underdeveloped but has immense growth potential."

Zuanic explains that if Germany reaches a 1% penetration rate, similar to Canada's, "that would imply more than 4-5x upside." However, achieving this growth will require addressing key challenges. "More consistent and ample supplies across price and quality spectrums, new formats being allowed, and streamlined prescription systems."

Despite these hurdles, Zuanic says he is still optimistic. "It is still early days, but the German medical cannabis market could accelerate as these issues along the supply chain improve," he added, signaling the potential for significant expansion in this nascent market.