Investors in Tongcheng Travel Holdings Limited (HKG:780) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.4% to close at HK$18.04 following the release of its third-quarter results. The results were positive, with revenue coming in at CN¥5.0b, beating analyst expectations by 2.7%. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Tongcheng Travel Holdings from 26 analysts is for revenues of CN¥20.1b in 2025. If met, it would imply a huge 24% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of CN¥19.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.05 in 2025. Overall, while the analysts have reconfirmed their revenue estimates, the consensus now no longer provides an EPS estimate. This implies that the market believes revenue is more important after these latest results.

Additionally, the consensus price target for Tongcheng Travel Holdings rose 9.8% to HK$22.55, showing a clear increase in optimism from the the analysts involved. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Tongcheng Travel Holdings analyst has a price target of HK$27.48 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at HK$17.71. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2025 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 18% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 18% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 12% annually. So it's pretty clear that Tongcheng Travel Holdings is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The clear take away from these updates is that the analysts made no change to their revenue estimates for next year, with the business apparently performing in line with their models. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

At least one of Tongcheng Travel Holdings' 26 analysts has provided estimates out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Tongcheng Travel Holdings has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.