Despite an already strong run, China Security Co., Ltd. (SHSE:600654) shares have been powering on, with a gain of 79% in the last thirty days. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 87% in the last year.
Although its price has surged higher, it's still not a stretch to say that China Security's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 4.3x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Electronic industry in China, where the median P/S ratio is around 4.5x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
What Does China Security's P/S Mean For Shareholders?
The revenue growth achieved at China Security over the last year would be more than acceptable for most companies. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think this respectable revenue growth might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If that doesn't eventuate, then existing shareholders probably aren't too pessimistic about the future direction of the share price.
Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on China Security will help you shine a light on its historical performance.
Is There Some Revenue Growth Forecasted For China Security?
There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like China Security's to be considered reasonable.
Taking a look back first, we see that the company managed to grow revenues by a handy 9.0% last year. Still, revenue has barely risen at all in aggregate from three years ago, which is not ideal. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing revenue over that time.
Comparing the recent medium-term revenue trends against the industry's one-year growth forecast of 27% shows it's noticeably less attractive.
In light of this, it's curious that China Security's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.
What Does China Security's P/S Mean For Investors?
China Security's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.
Our examination of China Security revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't resulting in a lower P/S as per our expectations, given they look worse than current industry outlook. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's hard to accept the current share price as fair value.
Having said that, be aware China Security is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis, you should know about.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on China Security, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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