Luzzetti和同事预计名义中性利率在3.75%至4%之间。Deutsche Bank economists expect the Federal Reserve to suspend the easing cycle next year after cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December this year.
Economists such as Matthew Luzzetti raised their forecasts for next year's economic growth and inflation, and lowered their unemployment rate forecasts, saying that the overall victory of the Republican Party could bring “drastic changes” to the US economy.
Therefore, economists expect that after cutting interest rates in December, the Fed will avoid further interest rate cuts next year; it is expected that the December interest rate cut will reduce the midpoint of the federal funds rate range from the current 4.625% to 4.375%, and the Fed will not cut interest rates again until the third quarter of 2026, by 25 basis points.
Luzzetti and colleagues expect the nominal neutral interest rate to be between 3.75% and 4%.
Economists raised their economic growth forecast for next year from 2.2% to 2.5%. Factors such as current growth momentum, “moderate” tax cuts, deregulation, and a more supportive financial environment are factors.
They expect the core PCE inflation rate to remain at 2.5% or above by 2026, and the Trump administration is expected to “drastically raise tariffs”; they previously expected the core PCE inflation rate to fall from the current 2.7% to 2%.
