为了对冲这些风险，凯利建议投资者增加海外投资，特别是国际股票，这些股票具有长期增长潜力，且股息收益率是美国股票的两倍。此外，他还指出，股市领导地位将更加稳固，大型科技股以外的其他板块也在加速追赶。例如，所谓的“七巨头”指数今年上涨了55%，是标普500指数涨幅的两倍多。Despite the S&P 500 index achieving a return on investment of over 20% for the second consecutive year, there is currently no sign that the upward momentum is about to end.
According to the Wisdom Finance app, investors can expect the upward trend in the US stock market to continue into next year, even though since the beginning of 2023, the S&P 500 index has experienced a strong upward trend, with an increase of over 50%, and this growth momentum will not be limited to popular large technology companies. David Kary, a strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, pointed out that strong corporate earnings performance and overall vitality of the US economy will be key factors driving the stock market to continue its rise. However, he also cautioned investors about potential risks such as overvaluation, overly concentrated portfolios, and uncertainties in the Trump administration's policies. Nevertheless, they believe there are enough positive factors at present to maintain this momentum.
Kary stated in an interview that although the S&P 500 index has achieved a return on investment of over 20% for the second consecutive year, there is currently no sign that the upward momentum is about to end. He expects the economy to continue growing over the next two years, with overall returns also rising. However, he also acknowledged that Trump's trade protectionism policies could trigger inflation risks, forcing the Fed to adjust its interest rate reduction plans.
To hedge against these risks, Kary recommends that investors increase their overseas investments, especially in international stocks, which have long-term growth potential and dividend yields twice those of US stocks. Additionally, he pointed out that the stock market leadership position will be more stable, with sectors outside of large tech stocks also catching up. For example, the so-called 'Big Seven' index rose by 55% this year, more than double the increase of the S&P 500 index.
JPMorgan Asset Management is bullish on the prospects of multiple industries, including the financial sector benefiting from deregulation and high interest rates, consumer goods companies focusing on affluent clients, and the continuously innovative medical care industry. At the same time, they also advise investors to include small-cap stocks in their portfolios to weather the downturn cycle.
Despite facing risks such as overvaluation, high portfolio concentration, and policy uncertainties in the Trump administration, Kary is not the only one with an optimistic view. Wall Street heavyweights like Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, and UBS Group also predict further increases in the stock market by 2025. These institutions generally believe that despite some potential risks, strong corporate earnings performance and overall vitality of the US economy will be sufficient to support the upward trend in the stock market.
