Jinwu Financial News | The stock price of NIO (09866) improved. As of press release, it rose 3.87% to HK$37.6, with a turnover of HK$30.8641 million.
According to BOC International Research and Development, NIO expects to deliver 0.072 million vehicles to 0.075 million vehicles in the fourth quarter, an increase of 43.9% to 49.9% over the previous year. The sales guidelines are slightly lower than expected, which means that the average delivery in November and December is about 0.026-0.027 million vehicles. The bank believes that the company's sales growth next year will mainly come from Ledao, a 6-seater SUV and a 5-seater SUV that are ideal against the ideal L7 and L8. According to management guidelines, the gross profit margin will be maintained at least 15% after increasing the amount. The bank maintained its buy rating, and the target price remained at HK$59.88/$7.7 (NIO US). The current price predicts sales volume of 0.7 times the 2025 market sales rate, which is 1.2 times/0.9 times lower than Xiaopeng/ideal.
According to Open Source Securities Research, considering the assumption that Ledao L60 delivered 4.3,000 units in October and 0.01 million units delivered in December, or implied a month-on-month decline in sales of the main brand. In 2025, NIO's main brand, the 0.8 million yuan luxury sedan ET9, is expected to be officially delivered. The sub-brand Ledao will release 2 domestic SUVs, and the new affordable sub-brand Firefly 2025H1 will release the first model, forming a complete “NIO+ Redo+ Firefly” product matrix, covering the 0.15-0.8 million yuan price range. Since NIO's only new car ET9 is positioned as a luxury car or difficult to drive, the main brand's sales momentum depends on the rebound in sales; it is expected that the production capacity of the Ledao L60 will stabilize after climbing the slope (target delivery of 0.02 million units in March 2025), 2 domestic SUVs, and 1 new Firefly car will drive overall sales growth in 2025.
