特朗普对关税会有多认真？关税被广泛认为是通胀的根源，如果关税如期实施，通胀可能会达到1930年代以来最高水平。The frenzy of the 'Trump trade' has receded, with the market shifting its focus to risks, namely tariffs, deficits, and overvalued US stocks.
"Trump trade" frenzy has subsided, the market is now focusing on the risks associated with Trump's election, namely tariffs, deficits, and overvaluation.
As Trump continues to appoint new cabinet members, analysts are becoming increasingly clear on policy details, and the momentum in the US stocks has faded. The current top concern in the market is the issue of tariffs:
How serious will Trump be about tariffs? Tariffs are widely regarded as the root cause of inflation. If tariffs are implemented as scheduled, inflation could reach the highest level since the 1930s.
Kevin Khang, Global Economic Research Director at Vanguard Group, warns that during Trump's term there may trigger inflation, partly due to tariffs and also because deportations of immigrants may tighten the labor market supply, especially in industries with long-term labor shortages such as construction and hospitality. In addition, forecasts for economic growth are more cautious, but the potential impact of tariffs depends on the actual performance of the policy.
Since the beginning of this year, boosted by expectations of a Fed rate cut, the S&P 500 index has surged 25%. However, as more and more data show a strong US economy, Fed officials publicly question whether further rate cuts are necessary. Derivatives traders are currently pricing in several more rate cuts by 2025. If rate cuts do not materialize, US stocks may decline.
In addition to the tariff issue, overvaluation is also making investors uneasy.
Goldman Sachs expects the S&P 500 index to rise by 10% next year, mainly due to strong profit growth. However, Goldman Sachs stock strategist David Kostin also warns that changes in immigration policy, tariffs, and fiscal policy may lead to an increase in inflation.
The bank holds a pessimistic view on the long-term prospects of US stocks, expecting a annualized ROI of only 3% for the s&p 500 index in the next ten years, mainly because from many indicators, the stock market already appears expensive. In order to continue to maintain amazing returns, profits need to grow rapidly or valuations need to reach new heights. Goldman Sachs stated that the s&p 500's PE ratio after cyclical adjustments is currently at the 97th percentile since 1930.
