During the Asian session on Friday (November 22), spot gold fluctuated higher. At one point, it reached a two-week high of 2692.06 US dollars/ounce. The geographical situation between Russia and Ukraine was tense and continued to provide upward momentum for gold prices. Technical signals were also biased in favor of the bulls. Short-term gold prices are expected to increase resistance in the 2700-2710 region.

Fundamental main benefits:

The situation in Russia and Ukraine is tense, risk aversion is heating up sharply, and gold ETF holdings continue to increase; 10-year US bond yields rebounded overnight.

The main disadvantages on the fundamentals are:

US economic data is strong (initial request data and housing market data). Expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in December have cooled down, the Fed official's speech is slightly hawkish or neutral, and the US dollar index continues to strengthen, reaching a new 13-month high of 107.16.

Technical side

Daily level: High fluctuation, the Bollinger line trajectory is running close to level, and the mid-line trend is watching the 2553-2821 region breakout; in the short term, the MACD also shows signs of a gold fork, and the green bar has shrunk, and the KDJ gold fork continues to rebound after being supported by the 100-day EMA, breaking through all short-term moving average resistance. The 5-day EMA crosses the 10-day EMA line. Before falling below the 10-day EMA at 2651.50, the market may be slightly biased and continued to rise later; if it falls unexpectedly below the 10-day EMA of 2616.68, it may unexpectedly fall below the 10-day EMA Feelings have taken a turn.

4-hour level: Unilateral rise. If it can break through the 61.8% retracement level of 2693.36 resistance from 2790-2536, it is expected to rise again to a historical high of around 2790. In the short term, there is still some resistance around the 2700 mark and 2710, respectively. In the short term, there is still some resistance around the 2710 mark, which is a break in the previous downturn. If this position can be recovered, it will also increase the bullish signal in the future. If this position cannot be broken, it is still necessary to watch out for the possibility of the market turning into a decline. Also, at present, KDJ is signaling a top divergence and an overbought signal, and the MACD is slightly above the top divergence. If the price of gold continues to be pressured against 2693.36 resistance, it is necessary to watch out for the risk that the price of gold will return to the downward trend.

Focus on: the initial value of the US manufacturing PMI in November, the situation in Russia and Ukraine, and Trump's developments.

Conclusion: At present, favorable fundamentals clearly outweigh the bearish factors. Technical signals are biased towards the bulls. Before new negative news appeared, short-term opportunities were biased towards the bulls.

The main risks for bulls: traders made a profit over the weekend to settle demand, Trump's unexpected situation.

At 13:56 Beijing time, the current price of spot gold was 2685.97 US dollars/ounce.