According to Zhito Finance APP, Kaisheng Securities released a research report stating that with the launch of large models such as GPT-4o, the AI emotional companionship function is increasingly enhanced, and the market size of AI chatbots is expected to grow rapidly. Currently, the user base and revenue for overseas APP social companionship are gradually increasing, and domestic companies are actively positioning themselves. The AI toy market is vast with a high fault tolerance rate for children's companionship scenarios, providing companionship, entertainment, or education experiences. By empowering companionship toys/robots through "AI+IP", the AI intelligent toy industry may usher in rapid growth. It is recommended to continue monitoring the IP, content, platform providers, and toy manufacturers in the AI social companionship sector.

The major viewpoints of Open source Securities are as follows:

Model iteration is driving the enhancement of the AI emotional companionship function, and the market size of AI chatbots is expected to grow rapidly.

Starting in 2024, with the launch of large models such as GPT-4o, the AI emotional companionship function is increasingly enhanced. AI companionship products are designed to meet users' needs for being understood, listened to, and attended to, discovering and responding to user emotions in a timely manner using AI technology, and providing high-quality emotional support. From the APP payment point of view, many APP products adopt a subscription model (monthly payment) and provide value-added services (such as costumes, props, chat rooms). Hardware products mainly consist of plush toys, story machines, companionship robots, etc., which are currently iterating towards improved voice interaction, developing intelligent agent interaction, and enhancing visual functions. According to media reports, the global chatbot market may reach 27.2972 billion USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 23.3% from 2023 to 2030, indicating a rapid growth trend.

The user base and revenue for overseas APP social companionship are gradually increasing, and domestic companies are actively positioning themselves.

According to media reports, the leader in AI emotional companionship applications, Character AI, reached a historical high of 22 million MAUs in August 2024, with total downloads from January to August 2024 reaching 19 million. TalkieAI, which is under Minimax, and LinkyAI, under kunlun tech, rank second and third globally in terms of downloads for companionship AI applications. In terms of revenue, Replika's in-app purchase revenue exceeded 9 million USD from January to August 2024, with a total global revenue of approximately 90 million USD, indicating that paid revenues are gradually increasing.

Domestically, in May 2024, hubei century network technology inc. launched the AI music social product "Give Mic" which features AI voice evolution, AI Q&M speech, AI dialect, AI virtual person, and AI singer; in January 2024, hangzhou shunwang technology based on the Lingxi engine developed and launched the AI companion intelligent agent "Shunwang Chat", introducing group chat features; in October 2024, the startup Natural Selection AI launched its first 3DAI companion product "EVE" (the founder comes from kingnet network strategic investment company Ultimate Fantasy Technology).

"AI + IP" empowers companion toys/robots, continuing to layout the AI companion social track.

In the first-level company sector, the startup Folo Toy collaborated with Volcano Engine to launch the emotional companion doll "Eye-catching Bag", which combines various AI technologies such as Doubao large model, Button professional version, speech recognition, and speech synthesis; Yueran Innovation launched Bubble Pal in July 2024, with sales reaching tens of thousands by October 2024. In addition, zhejiang jinke tom culture industry is researching the Tom Cat AI voice robot, AI storytelling app, AI games, and other AI products, with the first generation Tom Cat AI robot expected to be launched before the 2025 Spring Festival; alpha group’s IP Pleasant Goat cultivated the AI twin digital human "Pleasant Goat" in 2023 and launched the first AI smart product, "Pleasant Goat Super Energy Bell Doll", priced at 399 yuan in May 2024, offering features including chat mode, praise mode, Bluetooth mode, etc. The "Sleep Aid AI Pleasant Goat" is set to launch in October 2024, and the company will also introduce AI plush toys, educational toys, desktop robots, and other new AI products; shifeng cultural development collaborated with Lingyou Zhixue (Shenzhen) Technology Co., Ltd. to gradually launch AIGC intelligent toys using Doubao large model and Button professional version tools.

The AI toy market is vast, and the AI intelligent toy industry may experience rapid development.

According to relevant media reports, by 2030, the global AI toy market size may reach 35.11 billion dollars. The margin for error in children's companion scenarios is relatively high, providing companionship, entertainment, or educational experiences. Combining AI technology and children's companion scenarios, the AI intelligent toy industry may see rapid development. It is recommended to continuously pay attention to the IPs, content, platforms, and toy manufacturers in the AI social companion track.

Key recommendations include hubei century network technology inc. (300494.SZ), hangzhou shunwang technology (300113.SZ), alpha group (002292.SZ), shanghai film (601595.SH), kingnet network (002517.SZ), with benefitting symbols including zhejiang jinke tom culture industry (300459.SZ), shifeng cultural development (002862.SZ), guangbo group stock (002103.SZ), rastar group (300043.SZ), etc.

Risk warning: Progress of large models may not meet expectations; the launch time of new products may be delayed; the performance of toys launched may not meet expectations.