该行表示，预计2024/2025/2026年公司收入3574/4360/5157亿元，实现同比+32%/+22%/+18%；预计实现经调整净利润240/281/357亿元，实现同比+25%/+17%/+27%，维持“买入”评级。Jinwu Financial News | According to Huaan Securities Research, in the third quarter, Xiaomi (01810) revenue was 92.5 billion yuan, yoy +30.5%, a super-consistent forecast of 2.5%; GAAP operating profit recorded 6.04 billion yuan, exceeding the consistent forecast of 17.7%; adjusted net profit was 6.25 billion yuan, exceeding the consistent forecast of 5.8%;
According to the bank, the gross margin of Xiaomi's auto business reached 17.1%, a significant increase from month to month, higher than BBG's agreed estimate of 12.1%. The reason for the continuous optimization of automobile gross margins is because the capacity utilization rate continues to increase, and the scale effect is evident. In October of this year, the delivery volume of the Xiaomi SU7 exceeded 0.02 million units, and capacity utilization continued to increase. It is expected that the unit production cost will drop further, and the benefits for subsequent delivery orders will be reduced. The bank determined that the gross margin of Q4 cars will still increase sequentially.
The company continued that at the end of October this year, Xiaomi released the Xiaomi 15 series and system-level AI Surge OS2. The market response was strong, and the Xiaomi 15 series achieved a sales breakthrough of 1 million units at a faster rate than the 14 series. It is recommended to focus on the increase in demand for switches brought about by subsequent AI feature upgrades. At the same time, due to the price increase of the Xiaomi 15 series, the mobile phone business ASP is expected to grow further in the fourth quarter.
The bank said it expects revenue of 357.4/436/515.7 billion yuan in 2024/2025/2026, achieving +32%/+22%/+18% YoY; adjusted net profit of 24/28.1/35.7 billion yuan, achieving +25%/+17%/+27% YoY, maintaining a “buy” rating.
