On November 22, Caixin reported (Editor Zhao Hao) that due to the recent escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the past few days, the safe-haven appeal of gold has significantly increased, and spot gold prices are expected to achieve the largest weekly gain in over a year.

During the European session on Friday (November 22), spot gold extended its gains to 1%, briefly breaking through the 2700 level, reaching a high of $2700.21 per ounce, the highest level since November 8; and the gold price has risen for five consecutive days, with an increase of over 5% this week, the last time such a weekly increase exceeded was in October 2023.

Daily chart of spot gold.

Yesterday, the Ukrainian Air Force initially reported that Russia had launched an "intercontinental ballistic missile" from the Astrakhan region in southern Russia. Ukrainian President Zelensky also stated that the missile launched by Russia that day met the parameters of an intercontinental ballistic missile in terms of speed and flight altitude.

Later that day, Russian President Putin made a television address, stating that the "new type of medium-range hypersonic missile" tested by the Russian military in the operation is codenamed "Hazelnut". Putin explained that the missile is capable of attacking targets at a speed of 10 Mach, and currently there are no anti-missile systems that can intercept this type of missile.

Putin stated that after Western missile attacks on Russia, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has taken on a global conflict nature, with the situation further complicating. Analysts believe that in connection with Russia's recent updates to its nuclear doctrine, this move can be seen as an escalation of Russia's nuclear deterrence.

Three days ago, Russian President Putin signed a decree approving the new version of Russia's basic national nuclear deterrence policy, the "nuclear doctrine". Peskov explained at the time that according to the new nuclear doctrine, if Ukraine uses Western non-nuclear missiles to attack Russia, Russia can respond with nuclear weapons.

Subsequently, Ukraine successively used the American army tactical missile system (ATACMS) and the "Shadow of the Storm" cruise missile provided by the United Kingdom to launch attacks on Russian territory. The head of the Russian foreign intelligence agency, Nareshkin, warned that Moscow would retaliate against NATO countries that assisted Ukraine in attacking Russian territory.

At the same time, traders are also "pricing in" the latest comments from Chicago Fed Chairman Gulsby. This "dovish" official believes that as interest rates approach a stable level, the pace of rate cuts may slow down, and interest rates will "substantially decrease" in the next year.

Gulsby also pointed out that the labor market has cooled down and is approaching full employment. Previously, a series of labor data released by the United States had mixed implications, causing the demand for precious metals as a safe haven to outweigh the headwinds of a significant rebound in the US Dollar Index.

Benefiting from global central bank bids, the spot gold price has risen by over 30% since the beginning of the year, the last time it rose by over 30% in a year was in 2007. It is widely expected that the gold price can set a new record in 2025, and Goldman Sachs, UBS Group, and others have released bullish prospects.

Senior commodity analyst and founder of CPM Group, Jeffrey Christian, expects gold prices to reach a new high by the end of January next year. He explains that a significant amount of uncertainty surrounding the policies of the newly elected US president will drive this rebound, leading investors to flock to defensive assets like gold in search of safety.